Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
553 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers are developing across northeast Oklahoma this
morning and can be expected to continue through the mid morning
hours before shifting east. Rain will remain fairly light but some
brief reduction in vsbys will be possible in heavier showers.
Thunder should remain pretty minimal, but a few rumbles are not
out of the question in heavier convective cores. Chances move to
the Arkansas sites by this afternoon, though trends have been down
in convective coverage for those sites. VFR conditions will
mostly prevail through the period with the exception of any
convective influences. Some MVFR and possibly IFR cigs and vsbys
are also likely tonight at times for the Arkansas sites as
moisture return will encourage fog development at the end of the
period.

Bowlan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 216 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021/

DISCUSSION...

The main forecast challenge will be rain/convective chances over
the next several days, as the hot/dry pattern this past month
transitions to a cooler and wetter one.

A subtle wave to our south and west this morning will lift over
the region this morning and may set off scattered showers and
storms across E OK, with potential spreading east into the
afternoon. There should be a lull tonight in the wake of this
wave. A frontal boundary will push into the High Plains on
Thursday, with increasing warm advection over our area ahead of
the front setting off convection that will spread into the
region. With the boundary expected to stall over the region on
Friday, expected continued high chances for showers and storms. An
upper low will develop over the southwest CONUS Thursday, with
this system expected to eject northeast over the Plains Friday
night and Saturday. After all is said and done, some locations may
pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall. Given the dry antecedent
conditions, the flood threat will be limited, but if some heavy
rain falls in the right location, like on top of an urban area,
some flash flooding is possible. Organized severe weather is not
expected.

Expect dry weather to start next week in the wake of the weekend
system, but after that models continue to struggle with a very
unusual pattern over the CONUS. Will plan on keeping the forecast
dry for now and we may get enough cool advection to break the 80
degree streak at TUL, if we don't break it over the next few days
with the cloudier and wet weather.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  84  67 /  40  20  70  70
FSM   85  69  85  68 /  50  20  60  60
MLC   83  66  81  66 /  40  20  70  70
BVO   84  66  83  63 /  40  30  80  70
FYV   83  63  82  63 /  40  20  70  60
BYV   83  66  81  65 /  40  20  70  50
MKO   83  66  81  66 /  40  20  70  70
MIO   83  66  82  65 /  50  20  70  60
F10   86  66  83  66 /  40  20  70  70
HHW   80  67  81  67 /  40  30  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
508 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
508 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Eastern/Southern OK; Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Midday.

DISCUSSION...

There is a limited risk of a severe storm this afternoon, mainly
across far eastern and southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. An
isolated damaging downburst would be the main threat.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY thru SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY thru TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

An unsettled weather pattern will persist this week on into the
first part of the weekend. Daily thunderstorm chances will remain
elevated Thursday and Friday in association with a weak boundary
stalling over the region, and Friday night into Saturday with an
upper level wave. Locally heavy rainfall is possible from multiple
rounds of storms, and while the flood threat is low overall due
to dry antecedent ground conditions, isolated flooding is possible
if heavy rains fall on areas more susceptible to flooding.
Organized severe weather is not expected.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
907 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

OKZ054-060-291430-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-
907 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Osage
and northeastern Tulsa Counties through 930 AM CDT...

At 906 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Turley, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Skiatook...
Sperry...                         Turley...
Tulsa International Airport...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3620 9587 3619 9605 3638 9608 3639 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1406Z 177DEG 24KT 3625 9596

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
945 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

OKZ054-055-060-291500-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Washington OK-
945 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Osage,
southwestern Washington and north central Tulsa Counties through 1000
AM CDT...

At 945 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
southwest of Sperry, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Skiatook...
Sperry...                         Avant...
Turley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 9598 3622 9617 3648 9625 3649 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 182DEG 19KT 3626 9608

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1002 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

OKZ054-055-060-291530-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Washington OK-
1002 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Osage,
southwestern Washington and northeastern Tulsa Counties through 1030
AM CDT...

At 1001 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Sperry, moving north at 25 mph. Small hail up to one half inch will
be possible with this storm as well.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Skiatook...
Collinsville...                   Sperry...
Avant...                          Vera...
Turley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3645 9581 3642 9581 3642 9579 3640 9579
      3639 9581 3637 9581 3619 9598 3624 9618
      3654 9611
TIME...MOT...LOC 1501Z 199DEG 23KT 3630 9604

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Snider