Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
214 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concern for the next several days is the heat
and humidity. Another Heat Advisory will be issued for tomorrow,
this time for the entire forecast area. Depending on dew point
trends, an Excessive Heat Warning may be needed for a few spots
again tomorrow but will let the mid shift have another look at
that tonight.

A few showers and thunderstorms have developed in the last hour or
so, largely tied to the terrain in Arkansas, as well as the
northern edge of an enhanced cu field across southeast and east
central Oklahoma. Recent HRRR data keep a few storms going past
00Z in northwest Arkansas so will keep a mention through mid
evening to the east of I-49.

Dew points have remained fairly high today, due in part to recent
rains and also winds that kept a notable easterly component in
most spots. Low level winds shift more westerly tomorrow, which
should lead to lower dew points than we've seen today. Despite
this, dew points from the blended guidance look too low,
especially across western parts of the forecast area. Have tweaked
dew points for the next 24 hours more toward the NBM 90th
percentile and lowered tomorrow's highs a degree or two from NBM
values. This combination leads to at least 105 degree heat index
values across much of the area, including the climatologically
less favorable far northwest Arkansas counties.

The trend should be toward lower dew points and hotter
temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, with the position of the
upper high favoring Wednesday for the warmest day of the period.
Conditions remain likely to improve late in the week and into next
weekend as the position of the ridge shifts and cloud cover/rain
chances increase. Expect additional heat advisories through at
least Wednesday and likely Thursday as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  99  77 100 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   77  99  75  99 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   75  97  73  97 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   75  97  73  99 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   73  95  71  96 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   74  97  73  97 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   75  96  73  97 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   75  96  73  97 /  10  10   0   0
F10   75  98  73  99 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   75  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-
     062>066-068>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060-
     061-067.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
505 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
505 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and north of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing...diminishing after sunset.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread heat index values of 105 to 112 degrees are ongoing this
afternoon with only gradual cooling after sunset. Remember your heat
safety precautions if you have outdoor plans. Additionally, isolated
storms are ongoing along and north of Interstate 40. Locally strong
downburst winds are possible with the strongest storms. Storm
coverage and intensity will diminish after sunset.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY through FRIDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Hot and dry weather will dominate the weather pattern this week.
Portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas are likely
to see afternoon heat indices near 105 degrees each day.
Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast by next weekend along
with a return of thunderstorm chances.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
443 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

OKZ059-222230-
Pawnee OK-
443 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Pawnee
County through 530 PM CDT...

At 442 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Morrison, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Sooner Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 9698 3646 9692 3647 9691 3632 9671
      3625 9688 3625 9692 3633 9693 3633 9701
      3634 9703 3643 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 233DEG 10KT 3629 9706

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
443 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

OKZ066-067-070-222215-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Wagoner OK-
443 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Wagoner, northwestern Muskogee and northeastern Okmulgee Counties
through 515 PM CDT...

At 442 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
west of Boynton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Haskell...                        Taft...
Boynton...                        Stonebluff...
Bald Hill...                      Jamesville...
Eram...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 9569 3566 9588 3590 9576 3572 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 218DEG 7KT 3566 9575

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
530 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

OKZ060-061-067-222300-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Wagoner OK-
530 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Rogers,
northwestern Wagoner and east central Tulsa Counties through 600 PM
CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southeast of Tulsa, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Owasso...                         Catoosa...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 222 and 240.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 9584 3611 9601 3627 9582 3618 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 220DEG 10KT 3611 9587

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Snider