Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
afternoon with greater coverage across SE OK this afternoon. Will
include a VCTS at KMLC, otherwise expect storms to remain below
mentionable levels, but remain non-zero through the forecast
period. Some potential also for patchy fog in NW AR as was
observed this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1027 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Unstable and weakly capped airmass will again be over the area
today with a weak trough axis overhead. A few showers have
developed this morning across far southeast OK and some additional
development is likely farther north closer to the trough axis.
Only minor changes to the POP forecast for the morning hours based
on current radar, otherwise forecast in good shape.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/

DISCUSSION...
A weak level upper trough axis will remain over the region for
the next few days with widely scattered showers/thunderstorms
possible. Storms will mainly be diurnal in nature, although a few
lingering showers will remain possible during the overnight
hours.

Deeper low level moisture will begin to increase Wednesday into
Thursday as a weak upper wave approaches from the southwest.
Expect precipitation coverage to increase during this time,
especially across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain
chances will likely remain in the forecast late week into the
weekend as southwest flow aloft persists with a slow warming
trend.

Still the potential for a weak cool front to move into northeast
Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas on Saturday, but boundary may stall
across southeast Kansas before lifting back north. Just beyond
the extended periods, into the early part of next week, models in
general agreement with upper ridge retrograding back west into the
central Plains with hot/humid conditions returning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  71  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
FSM   91  71  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   89  69  90  71 /  30  10  20  20
BVO   88  68  88  68 /  20  10  20  10
FYV   87  66  88  68 /  10  10  20  10
BYV   88  66  89  68 /  10  10  20  10
MKO   89  69  90  70 /  20  10  20  10
MIO   88  67  88  69 /  10  10  20  10
F10   90  69  91  70 /  20  10  20  20
HHW   87  71  88  72 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1144 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1144 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast
Oklahoma, and additional development will remain possible into
northeast Oklahoma and perhaps western Arkansas during the
afternoon. Severe weather is unlikely, however brief gusty winds
could occur with strongest cells along with localized downpours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY through THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The chance for scattered thunderstorms are expected most days
this week, with coverage peaking during the afternoon hours.
The slow-moving storms will bring the potential for locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds.  A slow warming trend is expected late
week into the weekend with heat indices back into the 100-104
degree range across eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
216 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

OKZ071-073-162000-
Pittsburg OK-McIntosh OK-
216 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
McIntosh and northeastern Pittsburg Counties through 300 PM CDT...

At 216 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Arrowhead State Park, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds of 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree small limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Eufaula...                        Crowder...
Canadian...                       Indianola...
Hanna...                          Stidham...
Arrowhead State Park...           Raiford...
Lake Eufaula State Park...        Vivian...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 9596 3542 9558 3518 9545 3516 9545
      3516 9544 3514 9543 3504 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 148DEG 17KT 3516 9564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH