Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
309 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have largely diminished or exited the
area this morning which has left a rather stable atmosphere in its
wake with the exception of SE OK where ample amounts of MUCAPE
still exist. This area of instability will likely linger across SE
OK which will continue to allow for showers and storms to develop
through the day. The main change to the short term forecast has
come in the form of reducing PoPs across much of the area today.
It appears the activity from yesterday will likely leave the area
fairly stable and with the main boundary now south of the Red
River, there will be a lack of triggers to initiate convection
this afternoon. With that said, a few showers and storms seem
reasonable across NW AR thanks to higher terrain influences and
across far southeast Oklahoma closer to the aforementioned
boundary. Overall, it should be a nice day for most with
temperatures below normal and skies gradually clearing from north
to south.

The area will be within a weak trough for Sunday which will
continue to keep temperatures below normal and will keep a chance
for showers and storms in the forecast for parts of the area. PoPs
were generally painted along and south of I-40 (with the
exception of higher terrain influences across NW AR) closer to
where a surface boundary will be located. Storm chances will
likely be best across far southeast Oklahoma along the Red River.

Monday will likely be a transition day as surface flow begins to
reorient to be more from the south as a storm system moves onto
the central and southern plains. This will lead to an increase in
moisture and a gradual increase in temperatures through the week.
Thursday may see temperatures back to normal for this time of
year. These temperatures combined with the high dew points
expected will likely yield heat indices above 100 for most with
some locations exceeding 105. Precipitation will largely hold off
for most on Monday. The next storm system in the form of a short
wave will move into the region Tuesday bringing us our next best
chance for showers and storms. I thought about increasing PoPs for
Tuesday into the likely category but timing differences precluded
an upgrade. With that said, showers and storms are a good bet
across the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the short wave trough
swings through. Past Wednesday, model solutions differ on timing
and intensity but are in general agreement that another wave will
move through Thursday and/or Friday bringing us yet another round
of showers and storms.

Snider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  70  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   87  70  89  70 /  30  20  20  10
MLC   87  69  88  68 /  40  20  20  10
BVO   87  66  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   84  66  86  63 /  20  20  20  10
BYV   85  65  85  64 /  20  10  20  10
MKO   86  70  86  68 /  20  10  20  10
MIO   87  66  86  64 /  10  10  10   0
F10   86  68  89  67 /  20  10  20  10
HHW   88  71  88  70 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
433 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-150945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
433 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA... Mainly southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas.
 ONSET... Ongoing with multiple rounds expected through evening.

DISCUSSION...
A cluster of storms is ongoing across far southeast Oklahoma at
the time of writing. Expect additional showers and storms to
develop across far southeast Oklahoma closer to where a surface
boundary is located. Further north, isolated shower and storm
development will be possible though confidence is relatively low.
Any storm that develops will have the potential to be strong with
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall the main threat.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Shower and storm chances will continue tomorrow for parts of
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with temperature
remaining below normal. Monday will see a pattern change as we see
southerly flow return as well as moisture and an increasing trend
in temperatures. Multiple waves are expected to pass through the
area starting Tuesday which will bring us daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Any severe weather potential continues
to look isolated next week. The heat and humidity will likely peak
on Thursday when we will once again see some locations hit heat
indices at or above 105.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
418 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

OKZ049-053-140945-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
418 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Pushmataha
and northeastern Choctaw Counties through 445 AM CDT...

At 417 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
south of Nashoba, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Rattan...                         Albion...
Clayton Lake State Park...        Snow...
Nashoba...                        Kiamichi...
Dunbar...                         Oleta...
Cloudy...                         Eubanks...
Corinne...                        Sobol...
Finley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 9563 3468 9510 3468 9508 3455 9494
      3451 9494 3450 9505 3425 9505 3424 9515
      3408 9516 3402 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 0917Z 314DEG 17KT 3440 9519

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
448 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

OKZ053-141015-
Choctaw OK-
448 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Choctaw
County through 515 AM CDT...

At 448 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Sawyer, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Fort Towson...
Sawyer...                         Hugo Lake State Park...
Raymond Gary State Park...        Fallon...
Huskey...                         Swink...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3403 9551 3416 9517 3416 9516 3395 9516
      3395 9518 3396 9523 3395 9523 3394 9525
      3390 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0948Z 251DEG 15KT 3400 9541

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Snider