Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
310 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...
An outflow boundary from early day storms in Kansas has pushed
south into far northeast Oklahoma, with additional showers and
storms forming near and just north of this boundary. Surface dew
points have pooled near 80 just south of the boundary, resulting
in isolated heat index values near or just above 110.

Isolated to widely scattered convection will remain possible over
the next couple days, with the higher chances slowly shifting
south and southwest with time. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with slow moving storms over the next couple days, but
many locations will remain dry. A heat advisory will be issued
again for Monday for much of the forecast area, although it is
possible that a random localized corridor may remain below
criteria due to clouds/storms.

An upper ridge will park itself over the area later this week into
next weekend ending any mentionable chance of precipitation and
leading to temperatures even slightly hotter than they are now.
Additional heat headlines will likely be needed all week.

Adjusted temperatures and dew points up a bit from the National
Blend of Models forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  96  77  96 /  20  30  20  10
FSM   77  96  76  96 /  20  30  20  20
MLC   75  97  74  97 /  20  20  20  20
BVO   73  94  72  94 /  20  30  10  10
FYV   72  92  71  92 /  20  30  10  20
BYV   73  93  72  93 /  20  30  10  20
MKO   76  96  75  96 /  20  30  20  20
MIO   74  93  73  93 /  20  30  10  10
F10   75  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
HHW   75  97  74  97 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1037 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1037 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Portions of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon and Again Tonight.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest Arkansas along with areas near Oklahoma Kansas
    border.
	ONSET...This Afternoon and Again Overnight.

DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon with heat
stress conditions increasing with afternoon heat index values of
105 to 112 degrees likely. A heat advisory is in effect for
eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas today.

Widely scattered storms with locally heavy rainfall will develop
again this afternoon across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Additional storms are likely to spread into portions of
northeast Oklahoma late tonight. Storms through tonight will be capable
of producing locally heavy rainfall.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY through SATURDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and storms are forecast across the region
on Monday with locally heavy rainfall possible. Storm chances
begin to decrease on Tuesday with dry weather expected for the
remainder of the week.  Hot and humid conditions will continue
both Monday and Tuesday with heat intensifying for mid to late
week. Heat advisories or warnings appear likely for several
days later this week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
359 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

OKZ057-061-252130-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-
359 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAIG AND
NORTHEASTERN ROGERS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northwest of
White Oak, moving south at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Chelsea...                        White Oak...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 274 and 276.

LAT...LON 3671 9522 3652 9523 3654 9546 3660 9545
      3660 9543 3667 9543 3673 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 011DEG 8KT 3666 9535