Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Bulk of RA/TSRA has pushed south of the TAF sites as of early
evening. Additional development not anticipated overnight. VFR
elements to prevail across most sites, except NW/WC AR where fog
potential may result in a period of IFR vsbys and VLIFR cigs
between 08z-12z. Cigs at those sites expected to lift and scatter
out by late morning or early afternoon.

DISCUSSION... /Issued 223 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Axis of deepest moisture continues to be pushed to the south and
this trend will become more pronounced after this evening as the
western CONUS ridge continues to amplify, while a mid level trough
drops southward along it's eastern edge. Additional storms will
potentially develop through the afternoon and evening with
localized heavy rain potential remaining across far southeast OK.
Fortunately this area has been largely spared the heavy rainfall
of late as as such, the flash flooding threat will be less. At
the same time, the low level flow will break down with the more
favorable regime focusing on the Arklatex overnight into Monday.
A corridor of high POPs has been maintained 00-06z near the Red
River with lower probs overnight into Monday morning.

The trough axis will slide to our south over the next couple of
days with a surge of relatively dry air pushing into much of the
area, with rain chances becoming more confined to southern areas
during the week. Temperatures will start below normal but
gradually trend toward more typical mid/late July conditions by
the latter half of the week as upper ridge expands across the
plains.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue to affect southeastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
through this evening. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts to near 60 mph and frequent lightning. Locally
heavy rainfall is also possible due to rather slow storm motions and
high moisture content in the air.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm potential will continue Monday across southeastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. There is a limited threat of
severe weather in the afternoon and evening, with the primary threat
being damaging wind gusts.

Thunderstorm chances decrease across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday, but low chances return late this week into the weekend
over southeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Severe weather
is not expected.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
717 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

OKZ073-190045-
Pittsburg OK-
717 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 717 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles east of
Ashland. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Kiowa...                          Ashland...
Haywood...                        Pittsburg...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 9588 3468 9589 3468 9609 3488 9609
      3492 9592 3459 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 250DEG 3KT 3475 9601

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