Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
950 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe convection continues to slowly push southward across
east central OK and west central AR this evening. Moderately strong
instability perists south of the convection, and deep layer shear
remains strong enough to maintain some organization as it continues
southward this evening. Have been hesitant to remove counties from
the severe thunderstorm watch, as moderately strong instability
persists north of the primary convective band and south of the
approaching cold front. HRRR has been consistent in developing
additional convection in that air mass, and have seen indications of
that occurring for past hour or so. Severe threat probaby not real
high north of ongoing organized convection, but could be a strong to
severe storm develop given supporting parameters. Watch currently set
to expire at 11pm, but may need to be locally extended sern OK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
339 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
339 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far northeast Oklahoma near the Kansas border.
	ONSET...After 5 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma; Northwest and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

DISCUSSION...

A significant risk of severe weather is forecast across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. The
risk decreases across southeast Oklahoma during the overnight
hours. The initial, more discrete storms will pose a large hail
to ping pong ball size and damaging wind threat. There is also a
very low, but non-zero tornado threat with these storms. This
threat will be greatest across far northeast Oklahoma near the
Kansas border. As storms congeal into one or more complexes and
move south, larger pockets of damaging winds to 70 mph will become
the primary severe threat.

One to two inches of rain is expected across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas. Isolated areas could pick up 3 to 4
inches locally, which could lead to flooding. The progressive
nature of the storms will limit the overall flood threat, however.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY thru TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Chances for storms will linger into early next week as a slow
moving upper system remains close to the region, though this
activity is not expected to be severe. After a brief break
midweek, thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for the
latter part of the work week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
850 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

ARZ019-029-OKZ069-072-076-110230-
Sebastian AR-Crawford AR-Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-Le Flore OK-
850 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CRAWFORD...NORTHERN
SEBASTIAN...EASTERN SEQUOYAH...SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN LE
FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 850 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Short, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Cedarville...                     Natural Dam...
Alma...                           Barling...
Pocola...                         Muldrow...
Roland...                         Lavaca...
Arkoma...                         Hackett...
Bonanza...                        Moffett...
Rudy...                           Lee Creek...
Fort Smith Regional Airport...    Short...
Figure Five...                    Jenny Lind...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 14.
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 320 and 328.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 14.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 22 and 24.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas...and northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3514 9446 3560 9468 3575 9441 3538 9408
      3534 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 331DEG 32KT 3557 9454

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
917 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

OKZ065-066-071-110300-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-McIntosh OK-
917 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCINTOSH...
SOUTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 916 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles north of Pharoah to 2 miles west of Okemah to
4 miles southwest of Paden. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okemah...                         Okfuskee...
Henryetta...                      Boley...
Weleetka...                       Paden...
Hanna...                          Bearden...
Castle...                         Clearview...
Pharoah...                        Bryant...
Vernon...                         Mason...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
236.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3561 9662 3559 9643 3563 9615 3519 9582
      3519 9587 3514 9591 3515 9598 3529 9598
      3529 9644 3546 9644 3546 9647 3543 9650
      3545 9655 3544 9657 3541 9654 3539 9654
      3541 9658 3540 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 314DEG 36KT 3552 9614 3542 9635 3546 9660

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
951 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

ARZ020-029-110315-
Sebastian AR-Franklin AR-
951 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN
SEBASTIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 951 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles northeast of Lavaca to near Greenwood.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Charleston...                     Greenwood...
Lavaca...                         Altus...
Branch...                         Denning...
Wiederkehr Village...             Bloomer...
Washburn...                       Excelsior...
Burnville...                      Fort Chaffee...
Caulksville...                    Etna...
Alix...                           Crossroads...
Witcherville...                   Dayton...
Meg...                            Milltown...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern and west central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3538 9371 3537 9375 3542 9380 3531 9381
      3532 9392 3523 9392 3523 9403 3514 9403
      3514 9414 3510 9414 3510 9416 3513 9436
      3539 9419 3538 9414 3541 9414 3543 9416
      3545 9415 3544 9408 3546 9404 3548 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 273DEG 31KT 3539 9412 3519 9425

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
956 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

OKZ065-070-071-073>075-110345-
Haskell OK-Pittsburg OK-Muskogee OK-Latimer OK-Okfuskee OK-
McIntosh OK-
956 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL...CENTRAL
MCINTOSH...LATIMER...PITTSBURG...SOUTH CENTRAL MUSKOGEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 956 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles west of Porum to Canadian to 4 miles southeast
of Bearden. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Wilburton...
Eufaula...                        Hartshorne...
Krebs...                          Quinton...
Weleetka...                       Savanna...
Red Oak...                        Crowder...
Whitefield...                     Alderson...
Kinta...                          Canadian...
Indianola...                      Hanna...
Bearden...                        Higgins...
Raiford...                        Haywood...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
214, and between mile markers 267 and 270.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3540 9644 3534 9572 3548 9544 3503 9493
      3497 9493 3474 9528 3487 9609 3505 9609
      3512 9603 3512 9601 3515 9601 3515 9598
      3529 9598 3529 9641 3534 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 325DEG 47KT 3535 9539 3518 9565 3529 9636

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1022 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARKOMA                  35.35N 94.44W
07/10/2021                   LE FLORE           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN NEAR STATE LINE ROAD AND
            ARKANSAS STREET.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1041 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

OKZ073-075-110415-
Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-
1041 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LATIMER AND CENTRAL
PITTSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1041 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Krebs, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Hartshorne...
Krebs...                          Kiowa...
Savanna...                        Alderson...
Higgins...                        Yanush...
Mcalester Regional Airport...     Blanco...
Haileyville...                    Pittsburg...
Gowen...                          Dow...
Bache...

LAT...LON 3508 9588 3510 9561 3469 9525 3468 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 317DEG 21KT 3496 9568

Lacy