Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...
At mid-morning, a cold front extended from southeast Nebraska
to southwest Kansas with an outflow boundary from southwest
Missouri into southeast Kansas. A few showers have made it
into northeast Oklahoma this morning. However, this activity
is expected to fade away as we approach the noon hour.

Strong to severe storms are expected to develop later this
afternoon across southeast Kansas as the cold front treks
to the southeast as a mid-level shortwave currently near
the South Dakota/Nebraska border slides to the south. These
storms are expected to move into northeast Oklahoma between 4
and 7 pm and spread to the southeast as the evening rolls on.
The initial discrete cells will have the greatest potential
to produce large hail and damaging winds along with a very
low tornado threat. As we move into the evening hours, the
storms are to become more linear and will pose mainly a
damaging wind threat.

The Current forecast today is on track with only a few
adjustments made to better reflect current trends.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
445 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-110945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
445 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...Severe weather likely late this afternoon and evening, into the
   overnight hours, with locally heavy rainfall...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late this afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late this afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late this afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across
northeast Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon with storms sweeping
south across of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening
into the overnight hours. Large hail and damaging winds will be
likely with the initial storms, including a limited tornado
threat, this afternoon and evening. Storms will likely become more
linear with time, transitioning mainly to a damaging wind threat
this evening into the overnight hours. The severe threat should
end after 3:00 AM as the thunderstorm complex shifts south of the
Red River. Persons should closely monitor weather conditions this
afternoon and evening, into the overnight hours, as watches and
warnings will likely be required.

In addition, very heavy rain will be likely in the stronger storms
and a few areas could see localized flooding. Widespread rainfall
around an inch is expected with locally higher amounts of 2 to 4
inches possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Low thunderstorms chances will continue into early next week as a
slow moving upper system remains close to the region, though this
activity is not expected to be severe.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

ARZ001-OKZ063-101630-
Benton AR-Delaware OK-
1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

At 1100 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bernice,
moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Grove...
Bernice...                        Maysville...
Cleora...                         Honey Creek State Park...
Bernice State Park...             Dodge...
Cayuga...                         Zena...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 9462 3650 9462 3650 9449 3633 9457
      3652 9501 3656 9501 3667 9495 3667 9481
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 291DEG 29KT 3659 9490