Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.DISCUSSION...

The 18Z TAF forecast discussion is included below...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and storms will either be in the vicinity or
affect the terminals directly this afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail outside of shower/storm activity. After a lull this
evening and possibly much of the night, storm chances increase
between midnight and 7 AM across NE OK and far NW AR, and will
then shift south toward the end of the forecast. Data indicates
that MVFR cigs may spread into NE OK and far NW AR as well behind
a weak boundary late in the period as well.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 945 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021/

UPDATE...

The main change this morning was the addition of a flash flood
watch for this afternoon and tonight. See discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Weaker mid level ridge was centered over the Red River valley
this morning. Plume of rich deep layer moisture was evident on
GOES16 imagery from N TX up thru OK into KS, with relatively drier
air over AR/MO. Greatest coverage of showers and storms will be on
the northern periphery of the ridge across NE OK this afternoon
and tonight. Recent CAM data has shown potential for localized
pockets of heavy rainfall, which would increase flash flood
potential, especially considering the wet soil conditions across
this region from recent rains. Additional rounds are expected
tonight as well in this area. Thus, a flash flood watch has been
issued for this afternoon and tonight along and north of highway
412 in NE OK.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 608 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions prevail this morning at the area sites. This trend
is forecast to continue for the most part through the valid
period. There will be periods of MVFR conditions within areas
of scattered showers and storms this afternoon and into the overnight
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021/

DISCUSSION...
The very moisture airmass remains in place across the entire
forecast area today (PWATS running at or above 2"), with the main
forecast issue being the placement/timing of additional heavy
rainfall.

Ongoing pockets of heavy showers with isolated thunder are
currently skirting the northwestern edge of our forecast area,
aided by a 20-25kt southwesterly low-level jet. With the upper
ridge gradually retrograding today, expect increasing afternoon
chances of showers and a few storms primarily for northeast
OK/northwest AR. A weak surface boundary draped across KS will
eventually sag south into the area tonight, as the mid-level flow
gradually becomes northwesterly. A more organized heavy rain event
may develop later tonight, with training/redevelopment possible
along the boundary as the southwesterly/westerly low-level jet
strengthens again.

Considered a new flash flood watch for parts of northeast
OK/northwest AR, but with the SREF probs and most of the CAMs
suggesting the heavier rainfall holding off until later
tonight/Thursday, will pass this decision on to the day shift.

Surface high pressure will eventually sag south late this week,
pushing the surface front and associated precipitation south of
the region. This will also drag in drier low-level air, so while
afternoon temperatures return closer to seasonal norms, humidity
levels should remain relatively comfortable through the holiday
weekend. Low rain chances look to return going into next week, as
gulf moisture lifts back north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  72  85  69 /  60  80  80  40
FSM   90  74  85  71 /  50  50  90  50
MLC   86  72  85  70 /  50  40  80  60
BVO   85  70  84  67 /  80  80  70  30
FYV   87  69  82  66 /  60  70  90  40
BYV   87  69  82  66 /  70  70  90  40
MKO   86  71  83  69 /  60  60  90  50
MIO   85  70  84  67 /  70  80  80  20
F10   87  71  84  69 /  50  50  80  50
HHW   88  74  88  72 /  30  20  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ054>063.

AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
127 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
127 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This afternoon and again late tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
 	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma; Northwest Arkansas.
 	ONSET...This afternoon and again late tonight.

DISCUSSION...

There is an elevated heavy rain and localized flash flood threat
this afternoon and tonight across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas as well. Multiple rounds of slow- moving, heavy rain
producing showers and storms are expected thru tonight and early
Thursday morning. These rains would fall on soils that have been
fairly saturated from heavy rains over the past few days,
increasing the flash flood threat.

There is a very limited threat of a damaging downburst with storms
that develop mainly across northeast Oklahoma this afternoon.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms ongoing across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas Thursday morning will pose a locally heavy rain
and flood threat. The activity is expected to progress south later
in the day Thursday down into southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas with a decreasing heavy rain and flood threat. Storm
chances will linger into Friday across southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas.

After a pleasant holiday weekend, thunderstorm potential is
expected to return by Tuesday of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
159 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

ARZ019-029-301915-
Sebastian AR-Crawford AR-
159 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CRAWFORD AND
CENTRAL SEBASTIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 159 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Excelsior,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Greenwood...                      Barling...
Lavaca...                         Hackett...
Bonanza...                        Bloomer...
Excelsior...                      Fort Smith Regional Airport...
Burnville...                      Jenny Lind...
Central City...                   Witcherville...
Rye Hill...                       Jenson...

This includes Interstate 540 between mile markers 4 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 9408 3510 9432 3517 9444 3530 9444
      3544 9436 3528 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 216DEG 16KT 3522 9435

Snider