Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
210 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Convective complex currently located over far northeast Texas
will lift into southeast Oklahoma over the next couple of hours
with the potential for heavy rainfall and a limited severe threat.
Main instability axis remains south of the Red River and the
stronger portion of the MCS will likely track northeast through
the ARKLATX region during the remainder of the afternoon hours.
Further north across NE OK/NW AR, modest surface based heating has
allowed for a marginally unstable airmass to develop with limited
CIN. Still the potential for a few scattered showers/thunderstorms
to develop across aforementioned area this afternoon/evening.

Upper low, currently located east of the Four Corners region,
will begin to shift slowly east towards the area Wednesday into
Thursday. Although the exact timing of the heavier thunderstorm
activity remains challenging, relatively high pops will continue
through this time period. PWATs will also continue to increase
with highly anomalous values in the 1.50-1.75 inch range by
Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall will remain likely with any of
the stronger storms. Although FFG remains relatively high across
NE OK/NW AR, north of the current flood watch, still the potential
for localized flooding with any storms that train over the same
areas through Thursday.

Main upper wave will begin to lift northeast of the region Thursday
night into Friday with rain chances decreasing. Upper high will
then begin to build westward over the weekend into early next
week with unseasonably warm/humid conditions expected. Generally
stayed close to NBM guidance through this time period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  78  65  78 /  70  60  60  70
FSM   66  78  66  79 /  60  70  70  60
MLC   64  77  65  77 /  80  70  70  80
BVO   63  77  64  77 /  60  50  50  70
FYV   63  77  63  77 /  60  70  60  50
BYV   64  75  64  79 /  60  70  60  50
MKO   64  76  64  76 /  70  60  60  70
MIO   64  76  65  77 /  70  60  60  60
F10   64  77  65  77 /  80  60  60  70
HHW   64  75  65  76 /  80  80  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053-073-075-076.

AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
456 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
456 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A line of thunderstorms is currently moving through southeastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas producing heavy rainfall and
some gusty winds. A stray severe wind gust or two will be possible
through the evening with these storms. More scattered showers and
storms could form across eastern Oklahoma this evening and tonight
with heavy rainfall being the primary threat due to abundant
moisture in place across the area. A localized hail and wind
threat is also possible into the evening and overnight with any
storms in the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing
across the region Wednesday morning with additional storm
development possible into Wednesday night. Again, periods of heavy
rainfall will be possible and combined with forecast rains Tuesday
will continue to increase flooding and river flooding concerns. A
limited severe weather potential may remain possible as well
Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorms chances continue through the
end of the week before a low pressure system currently to the west
finally weakens and lifts off to the northeast. A ridge of high
pressure expands into the region over the weekend allowing for
precipitation chances to retreat westward and a warming trend to
develop over eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to monitor updated forecasts as forecast rainfall
through Wednesday night could likely increase mainstem river
flooding concerns.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
219 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

OKZ049-053-181945-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
219 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 219 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of
Goodland, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Fort Towson...
Sawyer...                         Soper...
Kent...                           Goodland...
Messer...                         Hugo Lake State Park...
Grant...                          Ord...
Fallon...                         Apple...
Speer...                          Unger...
Gay...

LAT...LON 3387 9545 3388 9546 3389 9546 3387 9550
      3389 9551 3388 9554 3393 9556 3394 9560
      3391 9564 3391 9567 3388 9570 3390 9579
      3416 9580 3416 9578 3422 9578 3410 9522
      3387 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 202DEG 30KT 3395 9566

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
247 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

OKZ049-053-182030-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
247 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PUSHMATAHA AND EASTERN
CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 247 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles east of Antlers to 9 miles southwest of
Raymond Gary State Park. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Antlers...
Fort Towson...                    Sawyer...
Rattan...                         Snow...
Messer...                         Hugo Lake State Park...
Raymond Gary State Park...        Nashoba...
Oleta...                          Cloudy...
Corinne...                        Fallon...
Sobol...                          Swink...
Frogville...                      Apple...
Speer...                          Dela...

LAT...LON 3424 9565 3456 9525 3426 9504 3425 9505
      3424 9515 3394 9516 3396 9523 3394 9525
      3390 9525 3389 9526 3391 9527 3390 9528
      3387 9529 3389 9533 3387 9534 3387 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 227DEG 34KT 3422 9557 3387 9532

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
330 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

OKZ049-075-076-182115-
Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-Le Flore OK-
330 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PUSHMATAHA...SOUTHEASTERN
LATIMER AND SOUTHWESTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 329 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles northwest of Cloudy to 15 miles east of Oleta
to 10 miles northwest of Broken Bow. Movement was northeast at 40
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Albion...                         Kiamichi...
Octavia...                        Cloudy...
Nashoba...                        Honobia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3434 9542 3473 9519 3466 9484 3451 9464
      3451 9504 3425 9505 3424 9515 3421 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 204DEG 38KT 3437 9532 3425 9508 3409 9490

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
357 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

OKZ049-076-182145-
Pushmataha OK-Le Flore OK-
357 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 357 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles east of Nashoba to 6 miles southwest of
Octavia to 16 miles north of Broken Bow. Movement was northeast at
50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Heavener...                       Talihina...
Albion...                         Octavia...
Talimena State Park...            Heavener Runestone State Park...
Big Cedar...                      Lake Wister State Park...
Nashoba...                        Whitesboro...
Muse...                           Summerfield...
Hodgen...                         Honobia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3448 9523 3468 9510 3468 9506 3473 9506
      3493 9493 3494 9445 3451 9447 3451 9504
      3445 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 219DEG 46KT 3449 9513 3447 9478 3426 9464

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
518 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-076-182300-
Sebastian AR-Crawford AR-Sequoyah OK-Le Flore OK-
518 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD...
NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN...EASTERN SEQUOYAH AND NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 518 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southwest of Gans to 3 miles west of Hackett.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Sallisaw...                       Barling...
Pocola...                         Muldrow...
Roland...                         Spiro...
Arkoma...                         Hackett...
Bonanza...                        Gans...
Moffett...                        Brushy...
Fort Smith Regional Airport...    Jenny Lind...
Kibler...                         Rock Island...
Central City...                   Cowlington...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 9.
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 307 and 328.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3511 9442 3527 9482 3532 9481 3533 9483
      3564 9474 3564 9471 3542 9413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 203DEG 28KT 3530 9474 3517 9447