Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
948 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
At mid evening...the cold front was positioned in Northeast
Oklahoma from Delaware county southwest to Okfuskee county and
then extended further southwest into South Central Oklahoma. A
broken line of strong to severe storms resided along the front
within the instability axis and axis of low level frontogenetic
lift. The greater/stronger mid level lapse rates were located
across Southeast Oklahoma while more meager lapse rates were
located into far Northwest Arkansas. In response...as storms have
become more linear...damaging winds have become the primary threat
with a secondary threat of large hail mainly south of Interstate
40. Over the past hour...0-3km bulk shear values have tried to
become more perpendicular to the front across Southeast Oklahoma
with 0-1km shear values around 15-30KTs which would allow for a
continued low tornado potential...especially along the leading
line of the linear convection. A severe thunderstorm watch remains
in effect for the CWA along and ahead of the cold front.

Behind the cold front...an increasing 35-45KT low level jet along
with a some weak mid level frontogenetic forcing has allowed for
a few light rain showers and lightning strikes over Osage/Pawnee
counties in Northeast Oklahoma. Also behind the front...gusty
northwesterly winds have made it to the surface with gusts 35 to
45 and locally higher across Northeast Oklahoma. A wind advisory
remains in effect through late this evening for much of Northeast
Oklahoma.

Over the next few hours...this line of convection is expected to
continue to shift east and southeast along the cold front through
Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with the leading line
of convection exiting the CWA around 04-05z. Damaging winds of 60
to 70 mph will remain the primary threat with a secondary threat
of large hail and also a low tornado potential as this activity
moves further through the CWA. The greater potential for severe is
forecast across Southeast Oklahoma where more surface based
instability resided along with 60+ deg dewpoints. The majority of
the precip should be exiting by 06z with a slight chance of a
lingering shower in far Northwest Arkansas as the upper level low
moves through the region.

Overnight tonight...the gusty northwesterly winds should let up
some as the low level jet weakens...though remaining breezy with
gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range. Current wind advisory goes to 04z
and west of the CWA...the stronger gusts have begun to come down a
bit. Thus...for now will hold the advisory as is and continue to
monitor conditions. With the northwesterly flow...drier air was
moving into the region which will aid in low temps getting down
into the 40s tonight for most locations. For the evening
update...have added adjustments to wind grids and pops/wx based
on latest obs/radar trends and also minor adjustments to hourly
temp/dewpoint/sky grids to account for latest obs. The rest of the
forecast seems to be in good shape at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  65  45  79 /  80   0   0   0
FSM   48  64  44  80 /  90   0   0   0
MLC   45  67  45  80 /  90   0   0   0
BVO   43  65  42  77 /  70   0   0   0
FYV   44  59  41  75 /  90  10   0   0
BYV   47  57  44  75 /  90  20   0   0
MKO   45  64  44  78 /  90   0   0   0
MIO   45  61  42  75 /  90  20   0   0
F10   44  66  44  80 /  80   0   0   0
HHW   47  68  45  79 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>057-
     059>062-064>067.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
501 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
501 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to continue to expand in coverage
across northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon and spread east and
southeast into northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma this
evening as a cold front moves into the region. Storms will likely
quickly become severe with large hail up to 2 inches and greater and
damaging wind gusts being the primary threats. Discrete storms
into this evening will also pose a risk for tornadoes.

Storm coverage should organize into more of a linear complex this
evening as the cold front moves across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. In response, storms should transition to more
of a damaging wind threat with gusts of 60 to 70 mph possible
through the late evening hours. A low tornado potential may also
be possible through late evening, especially along the leading
line of the linear complex.

Also through this evening, locally heavy rainfall could create
localized areas of flash flooding potential. Forecast rainfall
amounts in the half inch to one and a half inch range will be
possible through this evening. Precipitation is forecast to taper
off from west to east and exit southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas by late evening with the departing cold front. Behind the
cold front, gusty northwesterly winds of 20 to near 40 mph are
forecast over mainly eastern Oklahoma through late evening before
the cold front pulls far enough away from the region.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty north winds will continue on Saturday which will raise fire
weather concerns for locations which receive little to no rainfall
today. The next chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms
returns by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
930 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

OKZ068-070-072-100300-
Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-
930 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000
PM CDT...

At 930 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Braggs, moving
east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Fort Gibson...
Braggs...                         Cookson...
Cherokee Landing State Park...    Greenleaf State Park...
Pumpkin Center...                 Lake Tenkiller State Park...
Summit...                         Box...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3580 9485 3551 9489 3562 9550 3581 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 276DEG 28KT 3568 9519

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             MUSKOGEE                35.75N 95.37W
04/09/2021  M0.75 INCH       MUSKOGEE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
959 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HOMINY                  36.41N 96.39W
04/09/2021                   OSAGE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WINDS BLEW DOWN POWER POLE, WINDS
            ESTIMATED NEAR 50 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1002 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     TSTM WND GST     FAYETTEVILLE            36.06N 94.16W
04/09/2021  M59 MPH          WASHINGTON         AR   ASOS

            ASOS AT DRAKE FIELD REPORTS GUST OF 59 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1012 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CINCINNATI              36.04N 94.51W
04/09/2021                   WASHINGTON         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1012 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ010-011-019-020-029-OKZ069-072-076-100345-
Sebastian AR-Madison AR-Washington AR-Franklin AR-Crawford AR-
Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-Le Flore OK-
1012 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MADISON...FRANKLIN...
CRAWFORD...SEBASTIAN...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN SEQUOYAH...
SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM
CDT...

At 1011 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles southeast of Brentwood to 2 miles northeast of
Bokoshe. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Ozark...                          Charleston...
Cedarville...                     Mountainburg...
Natural Dam...                    Greenwood...
Alma...                           Barling...
Pocola...                         Muldrow...
Roland...                         Lavaca...
Spiro...                          Arkoma...
Mulberry...                       Mansfield...
Dyer...                           Hackett...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 42.
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 313 and 328.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 14.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 22 and 49.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northwestern and west central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3577 9370 3538 9371 3537 9375 3542 9380
      3531 9381 3532 9392 3523 9392 3523 9402
      3514 9403 3514 9414 3510 9414 3506 9425
      3523 9482 3588 9444 3588 9352 3576 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 276DEG 38KT 3583 9406 3522 9476