Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Elevated convection has developed as expected across southeast
Oklahoma. This activity will persist into early afternoon with a
limited severe risk in the form of hail.

A more significant severe weather threat will develop after about
3 pm across northeast Oklahoma, mainly along and to the north of
Interstate 44. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado
or two will be possible with initial storms in this area through
about 6 pm. After 6 pm, storms will begin to congeal into a squall
line, and will also develop farther to the south. This squall
line will then surge east and southeast, with the main severe
weather threat transitioning to damaging winds, although isolated
QLCS tornadoes will also remain possible.

The current forecast is mostly on track, but have raised
afternoon high temperatures a bit with some places already at the
previous forecast highs.

Update on the way.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
506 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
506 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Portions of Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Primarily Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Portions of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Afternoon and early evening.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Osage and Pawnee counties.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop mid to late morning
across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. These
storms will have a limited risk of severe weather with hail
being the expected hazard.
Conditions will become increasingly supportive of severe weather
this afternoon especially across much of eastern Oklahoma.
A cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma this afternoon and
focus storm development. Storms will likely quickly become severe
with large hail and damaging wind potential. Initial storms ahead
of the cold front may pose a risk of tornadoes, otherwise storm
coverage will steadily increase along the advancing front with
damaging winds becoming the predominant hazard.
Further south across southeast Oklahoma uncertainty exists on
whether storms can develop prior to the cold frontal passage.
Should storms develop ahead of the front the potential for
for all severe weather hazards will exists including tornadoes.
Storms ongoing along the advancing front will also sweep across
this region with a continued risk of severe weather.
Severe weather potential will extend through western Arkansas
and primarily associated with the line of storms along the
cold front.  Damaging winds and locally large hail appear the
most likely hazards.  Storms will push further east into
Arkansas by the late evening hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...High Fire Weather Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty northerly winds will continue on Saturday which will
raise fire weather concerns for locations which receive
little to no rainfall on Friday. The next chance for showers
and isolated thunderstorms returns by mid next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ019-020-029-091815-
Sebastian AR-Franklin AR-Crawford AR-
1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND NORTHEASTERN SEBASTIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 115
PM CDT...

At 1240 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest
of Lavaca, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ozark...                          Alma...
Barling...                        Lavaca...
Mulberry...                       Dyer...
Fern...                           Kibler...
Central City...                   Piney...
Toney...                          Cecil...
Lonelm...                         Cravens...

This includes Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 14 and
33.

LAT...LON 3531 9427 3538 9432 3568 9400 3546 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 239DEG 35KT 3539 9422