Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1133 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR cigs will continue to improve from NW to SE. VFR elements to
prevail at the onset of the valid period at the NE OK sites. Chances
for convection will mainly stay south of KMLC, though some coverage
may impact KFSM for the first few hours of the period. MVFR cigs/vsbys
will improve upon frontal passage, and thunder chance will end at
KFSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1023 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front pushing through northeast OK this morning. Showers and
storms ahead of the boundary starting to increase in coverage some
across southeast OK and west central AR. A few storms late this
morning into the afternoon across SE OK/WC AR will carry
severe potential with hail the primary threat. Front to clear the
area by late afternoon, and will end the threat for severe weather.
Updated zones were mainly temperature adjustments to account for latest
frontal position. Also lowered high temps a little across parts of far
northeast Oklahoma. Sunshine in these areas later this afternoon cannot
be ruled out, and this would offset cold advection some.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1147 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas ahead of a cold that is pushing through the area.
Strong to a few severe storms, mainly across southeast Oklahoma and into
western Arkansas will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind
gusts into the afternoon. Thunderstorms will decrease as the front pushes
south of the area later this afternoon.

Behind the front, north winds gusting 20 to 25 mph along with
drier air will lead to an increase in grassland fire spread
potential across northeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY through WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Additional ran chances arrive late Monday into Tuesday, and again
Thursday. Fire weather danger may be present during the week in
areas that miss out on significant rainfall, especially northwest
of I-44.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 AM     HAIL             BOSWELL                 34.03N 95.87W
02/28/2021  E1.00 INCH       CHOCTAW            OK   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1132 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

OKZ049-053-281815-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
1132 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CST...

At 1132 AM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
Boswell, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Antlers...
Boswell...                        Rattan...
Soper...                          Kent...
Goodland...                       Messer...
Hugo Lake State Park...           Kellond...
Oleta...                          Apple...
Speer...                          Dela...
Unger...                          Finley...
Gay...                            Corinne...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3388 9585 3391 9588 3392 9590 3392 9591
      3395 9594 3407 9594 3416 9582 3416 9578
      3418 9578 3438 9550 3411 9521 3387 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 236DEG 49KT 3397 9588

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1239 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

OKZ049-053-281915-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
1239 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
EASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CST...

At 1238 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sawyer, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Fort Towson...
Sawyer...                         Messer...
Hugo Lake State Park...           Raymond Gary State Park...
Oleta...                          Corinne...
Fallon...                         Sobol...
Swink...                          Apple...
Speer...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3390 9541 3411 9562 3432 9509 3429 9504
      3424 9505 3424 9515 3402 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 236DEG 49KT 3402 9539