Freeze Watch 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

622 
WWUS74 KTSA 121620
NPWTSA

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1020 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131015-
/O.UPG.KTSA.FZ.A.0006.211113T0600Z-211113T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.FZ.W.0007.211113T0600Z-211113T1500Z/
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-
Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-
Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, 
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren, 
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Pawhuska, 
Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, 
Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah,
Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler, 
Wilburton, and Poteau
1020 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 expected.
  Temperatures in the metro areas of Tulsa and Fort Smith will  
  fall into the 30 to 32 degree range. 

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast 
  Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...These conditions will kill plants and other tender 
  vegetation that are left outdoors or unprotected.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Outdoor water pipes could freeze and burst
if left unprotected..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Outdoor water pipes should be wrapped or drained. Precautions 
should also be taken to protect small plants and tender 
vegetation. Outdoor pets should have a warm, dry shelter with 
sufficient food and fresh water.

&&

$$

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio,commercial radio or television
for the latest information,forecasts,and warnings.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/tsa

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
225 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

Upper wave swinging through the deep northwesterly flow has forced
a band of clouds/light rain along the KS/OK at this time. Latest
HRRR output drops this area of light precipitation into northwest
AR early this morning, with the activity moving east and southeast
of the region toward noon. Overall rainfall amounts will be light,
with a few areas receiving around tenth or two of rainfall.
Northwesterly surface winds will increase and become gusty, with
high temperatures generally in the 50s (with some low 60s possible
near the Red River).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

The surface ridge will slide east tonight, with temperatures
falling quickly under clear skies and light winds. Good chance of
a widespread freeze Friday night, and will go ahead with a Freeze
Watch for the entire forecast area into early Saturday morning.
Could see a hard freeze for parts of northeast OK near the KS
border along with northwest AR. Saturday afternoon temps will
remain below normal again, with highs mainly in the 50s. A weaker
cold front will pass through the region on Sunday, although not
expecting any precipitation as moisture will be lacking.

Rising mid-level heights along with the return of southerly winds
will result in a warming trend for early next week, with highs
bouncing back into the 70s by Tuesday. GFS/ECMWF remain in
reasonable agreement with the next frontal passage by mid-week,
with at least low chances of showers and perhaps a few storms by
late Wednesday/Wednesday night. Cooler weather returns again for
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

Showers and lower ceilings are being noted along a cold front across
KS with this activity moving toward E OK and NW AR. The latest
TAFs are very similar to the previous TAFs with small adjustments
to precipitation timing. Precipitation was removed from KMLC's TAF
this issuance given lowered confidence but a few sprinkles may
still be in the vicinity around sunrise. Our NE OK and far NW AR
TAF sites still stand the best chance to see rain later tonight
into early tomorrow morning with visibility and ceilings
potentially dropping briefly into the MVFR category. NW AR stands
the best chance for MVFR ceilings by sunrise with ceilings
potentially approaching 2000 feet. A WS group was again
considered for NE OK but conditions continue to be marginal. Wind
just above the surface may gust between 30 to 40kts now through
sunrise.

Tomorrow will see clearing skies with winds increasing from the
NW. Some gusts may push 25kts at times at most terminals. Wind
gusts drop off considerably at sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  30  56  43 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   58  32  55  39 /  50   0   0   0
MLC   57  30  57  41 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   51  26  54  39 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   52  25  52  37 /  80   0   0   0
BYV   50  28  50  39 /  80   0   0   0
MKO   54  29  53  40 /  40   0   0   0
MIO   49  27  51  38 /  30   0   0   0
F10   56  29  57  41 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  57  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
436 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
436 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY thru MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Gusty northwest winds between 25 and 30 mph are expected tomorrow
behind a cold front across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Winds will turn around to the south by Tuesday and will
be gusty yet again. A cold front will bring the potential for
storms Wednesday. The amount of instability available is in
question at this point.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy