Areal Flood Warning 28, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
644 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and storms continue to develop along an 850mb frontal zone
this morning that stretches across NE OK into NW AR. KBVO along
with our far NW AR TAF sites stand the best chance at seeing
shower/storm activity over the first few hours of the TAF period.
KTUL and KRVS may see storms stay just to the NE this morning.

This afternoon will see additional shower/storm development with
daytime heating across E OK and NW AR with more certainty along
the OK/KS border. Confidence has increased some for a line of
storms to develop this afternoon and evening across NE OK that
will sweep southward across our E OK and NW AR TAF sites. Tempo
groups were used where confidence in storms were a little higher. Any
shower/storm will likely reduce conditions to MVFR with brief IFR
conditions very possible. With all this said, there is still
uncertainty in the evolution of showers and storms this afternoon,
evening, and overnight.

Snider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Slow-moving heavy rain producing storms in a moist deep layer
environment along an 850mb warm front are producing very localized
flash flooding early this morning across portions of NE OK. This
activity should fade during the morning hours as the low level jet
weakens. Daytime heating will bring more scattered storms to the
region this afternoon, with the best coverage across NE OK and NW
AR. Localized flash flooding will remain a concern, given the weak
flow aloft and slow storm movement. A flash flood watch has been
issued to cover the threat thru the day across NE OK and NW AR.

The unsettled weather pattern will persist thru Monday, with a mid
level ridge expected to intensify and amplify to our west. A
disturbance in the north to northeast flow aloft will bring
elevated rain/storm chances thru Monday, gradually tapering down
from north to south by midweek. The disturbance is expected to
lift back to the northeast over our area during the latter part of
the week, increasing rain/storm chances again over much of the
region.

The data is coming into more of an agreement that mid level
ridging will build over the region by next weekend. PoPs were
tapered down during this time.

Below average temps will continue for the next several days.
Actually went below NBM here and there given uncertainties with
cloud cover and rainfall. Expect a return to near average temps by
next weekend with the ridge building overhead.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  73  89  72 /  50  50  40  40
FSM   89  73  90  72 /  60  50  50  50
MLC   90  72  89  70 /  40  40  50  50
BVO   88  69  87  68 /  40  30  40  40
FYV   86  68  86  66 /  70  50  50  40
BYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  50  50  40
MKO   88  72  87  70 /  50  50  50  50
MIO   87  69  87  69 /  50  30  50  40
F10   90  72  89  70 /  50  40  40  50
HHW   89  73  90  73 /  30  20  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ054>058-060>063-
     069.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

AVIATION.....21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
440 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-180945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
440 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma; Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Midday.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma; Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma; Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma; West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...

A limited risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast from midday
into the afternoon hours across northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. Damaging wind gusts to near 60 mph would be the main
threat.

A limited to elevated risk of flash flooding exists across
northeast Oklahoma, possibly extending into northwest Arkansas
this afternoon. Slow moving and heavy rain producing thunderstorms
could produce locally intense rainfall, which would lead to flash
flooding.

Due to the high humidity in place over the region, afternoon heat
indices are expected to approach 100 degrees across parts of
eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas this afternoon.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY thru FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

More rounds of thunderstorms are expected this weekend into early
next week as the unsettled weather pattern continues. Locally
heavy rainfall remains possible and could lead to flooding,
especially if areas that have recently received heavy rainfall are
affected. Organized severe weather is not expected.

After a relative lull midweek, thunderstorm chances will increase
during the latter part of the week as an upper disturbance moves
across the region. A building ridge aloft by next weekend should
put an end to the current unsettled weather pattern.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
316 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

OKZ062-170845-
Mayes OK-
316 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MAYES COUNTY UNTIL 345
AM CDT...

At 315 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Adair to 4 miles north of Rose. These storms were
nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Salina...                         Adair...
Spavinaw...                       Pensacola...
Hoot Owl...                       Spavinaw State Park...
Strang...                         Snowdale State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 263 and 272.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 9542 3620 9510 3622 9504 3627 9501
      3636 9501 3651 9519 3651 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 0815Z 009DEG 0KT 3645 9526 3628 9505

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
342 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

OKZ062-170900-
Mayes OK-
342 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MAYES COUNTY UNTIL
400 AM CDT...

At 342 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast of
Adair. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Adair...                          Strang...
Snowdale State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3647 9526 3642 9511 3629 9519 3637 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 0842Z 023DEG 2KT 3639 9521

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
428 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

OKZ056-057-061-171000-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-
428 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN
ROGERS AND SOUTHEASTERN NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

At 428 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
White Oak, moving south at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Chelsea...                        Big Cabin...
White Oak...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 273 and 278.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 9519 3651 9543 3650 9544 3650 9549
      3671 9547 3672 9525
TIME...MOT...LOC 0928Z 350DEG 12KT 3664 9536

Snider