Alert archive / Oklahoma / Areal Flood Advisories in 2021

Areal Flood Advisory 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 12, 2021Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this areal flood advisory at Mar 12, 2021, 10:55 PM CST for Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 12, 2021, 10:55 PM CST (04:55 UTC)
Expired: Mar 13, 2021, 1:45 AM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 910 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 646 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 116 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 159 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.0
Supercell composite: 5.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at Mar 12, 10:47 PM CST, 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 12, 10:47 PM CST, 8 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 12, 5:02 PM CST, 5 hours 53 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
502 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131145-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
502 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA... Northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
ONSET... This evening into tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA... Northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
ONSET... This evening into tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA... Northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
ONSET... This evening into tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to become widespread
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening and into
the overnight hours. The greatest concentration of activity is
expected to be across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in
the vicinity of a frontal boundary. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe with large hail the main concern. However, some
wind gusts of around 60 mph will also be possible. Tornadoes are
not expected in our area but trends will continue to be monitored.
Heavy rain and flooding of localized areas will be possible
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight as
showers and storms train across the same area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday morning,
especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain
will diminish throughout the morning and most of Saturday should
remain fairly dry. Chances then increase again Saturday night and
into Sunday morning as a potent upper level system progresses
across the area. A few stronger storms could produce gusty winds
and some small hail, but overall instability is limited, so
widespread severe weather is not expected. Localized heavy
rainfall is possible, especially in areas of training storms, but
any widespread flash flood potential remains limited at this time. Monday
and Tuesday will be dry, but strong winds behind the Pacific
front on Monday could lead to some increased fire danger in places
that receive minimal rain this weekend. Another system approaches
Tuesday evening into early Wednesday bringing another round of
showers and storms. This system could pose a severe threat, but
there are too many uncertainties at this time.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Snider

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 12, 10:24 PM CST, 31 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1024 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

OKZ054-055-130500-
Osage OK-Washington OK-
1024 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CST...

At 1023 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Osage Hills
State Park, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Dewey...
Copan...                          Osage Hills State Park...
Bartlesville Municipal Airport... Hulah...
Okesa...                          Sunset Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3671 9586 3670 9629 3680 9631 3700 9591
      3700 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 256DEG 19KT 3677 9619

Snider

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 12, 7:27 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Ottawa	9 days
Mar 12, 10:24 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	36 min
Mar 13, 1:23 AM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Ottawa	3 hr
Mar 13, 1:36 AM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Pawnee, Washington	3 hr
Mar 13, 2:34 AM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	2 hr
Mar 13, 3:51 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Ottawa	4 hr
Mar 13, 7:14 AM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Washington	3 hr
Mar 13, 9:50 AM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Osage	21 hr
Mar 13, 1:30 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Washington	55 hr
Mar 13, 1:32 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa	3 days

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in Oklahoma, 2021 Every areal flood advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.