Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
256 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

A few storms continue through this afternoon before clearing the
area by this evening.

A hard freeze covers the entire forecast area by Saturday morning
with temperatures into the middle 20s and wind chills dipping into
the teens.

Currently, the upper air pattern is characterized by a high
amplitude trough extending through the center of the CONUS.  A warm
front has moved just north of the KS/NE state line and a cold front
is now advancing east into north central KS.  This will continue
through this evening and the cold front should push through by
around midnight.

A few strong to severe storms may continue through this afternoon
but push east of the area by this evening as the cold front advances
east.  The main line of storms has moved through northeastern KS
earlier and produced 60 mph wind gusts as it did.  It is possible
enough destabilization could take place over the next hour to help
some updrafts become more robust.  There is a severe storm watch
over portions of the area through this afternoon into early this
evening to account for a few stronger storms that could briefly
become severe.  It is appears that this threat has begun to wane but
still not totally ruling out a storm or two could pose a wind hazard
mainly.  It appears the brief spin-up threat has passed with earlier
convection.

Into Thursday and Friday, northwest flow increases and winds
increase but not thinking gradient flow will be strong enough at
this time to prompt a wind advisory.  Temperatures turn colder into
Saturday morning with a secondary push of cold air from the northern
Plains.  Temps fall into the middle 20s with wind chills dipping
into the teens.  Northern stream flow remains mainly to the north of
the area into next week allowing for temperatures to rebound with
southerly flow.  Should see upper 50s to middle 60s by the middle
part of next week.  Keeping the forecast mainly dry for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Storms continue to develop over the area and progress generally to
the east for the balance of the afternoon. Thinking IFR category
restrictions from now on will be along with heavier showers or
storms. Winds continue to veer as the cold front advances east.
Thinking that skies scatter quickly after FROPA as dry air works
into the area. Have increased the gusts out of the northwest
behind the front as well through this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
300 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-112100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
300 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A couple strong to severe storms are possible across eastern
portions of the area through this afternoon and early evening.
These storms may produce large hail, strong wind gusts, and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
102 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

KSZ011-012-024-101945-
Brown-Jackson-Nemaha-
102 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Jackson, southeastern Nemaha and western Brown Counties through 145
PM CST...

At 102 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goff, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hiawatha, Sabetha, Wetmore, Fairview, Morrill, Corning, Goff,
Powhattan, Kickapoo Reservation and Woodlawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 9580 3962 9606 3998 9578 3982 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 216DEG 30KT 3964 9591

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
138 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

KSZ036>038-102015-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Morris-
138 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Geary,
eastern Morris and southwestern Wabaunsee Counties through 215 PM
CST...

At 137 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dwight to near Wilsey. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alta Vista, Dwight, Wilsey, Parkerville and Volland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3885 9665 3904 9652 3904 9637 3877 9639
      3856 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 221DEG 32KT 3884 9663 3862 9670

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Reese

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
400 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

KSZ038-054-055-102230-
Wabaunsee-Lyon-Osage-
400 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Wabaunsee, northwestern Osage and northern Lyon Counties through 430
PM CST...

At 359 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bushong, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Osage City, Americus, Harveyville, Allen, Admire and Bushong.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 136 and 160.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for
east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9635 3887 9595 3887 9593 3860 9578
      3846 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 239DEG 49KT 3860 9626

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Gargan