Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

A strong and slow moving storm system looks to bring rain, gusty
winds and chilly conditions to the forecast area over the next few
days.

At 19Z today, the region remained sandwiched between a surface ridge
near the Mississippi River Valley and a 990mb surface low over
Colorado. The tight pressure gradient between those two features
has been creating some breezy conditions this afternoon with
southerly winds gusting to between 20 and 30 kts. Low level wind
fields have allowed for moisture advection today and surface dew
points are now in the mid to upper 50s west of line from Concordia
to Emporia. Td's in the 60s are located in central KS. Stratus has
been stubborn so far today, but satellite is showing some
scattering in southeast KS. It is possible that some will see a
bit of sunshine before the day is over in east-central KS, but
clouds will quickly fill back in as ascent increases ahead of the
approaching system from the west.

For this evening and tonight, thunderstorms are expected to develop
after sunset in central KS where HREF shows that MUCAPE values
could exceed 2000 J/kg with 6 km bulk shear between 45 and 50 kts.
Initial storms could become severe but they look to weaken with
time as they move into the CWA after midnight. The more favorable
combination of instability and shear is expected to stay just
south of the area but there could be enough for a few strong to
severe storms in north-central KS around and just after midnight.
Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard with any strong or severe
storm. With time tonight, rain and some embedded storms will
overspread the forecast area.

The upper portion of the system will slow and become cutoff from the
flow southeast of the area tomorrow. With ample moisture in place, a
steady rain could occur for a good portion of the day Wednesday.
POPs decrease late tomorrow. Total QPF for this timeframe ranges
from a widespread 1 to 2 inches for much of the area, with between 2
and 3 inches possible in far eastern KS. Winds will then begin to
increase behind the system. The current forecast has winds flirting
with advisory criteria during the day Thursday so later shifts will
have to consider going with an advisory.

Temperatures will remain cool through the rest of this week as a
result of the northerly flow behind tomorrow's system. Highs will be
in the 50s until this weekend with overnight temps dipping into the
30s area-wide by Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Minor changes to the going forecast. Still looks like an extended
period with IFR conditions setting up over the area with LLWS
through around sunrise with strong low level flow in place. Can't
rule out some embedded thunderstorms overnight into early morning
so keeping VCTS mention along with -SHRA continuing to develop and
overspread the area. Overall, slow movement from west to east of
the current low pressure system should eventually take place with
winds changing to a northerly component by mid to late afternoon.
These winds will likely increase in speed into the end of the
forecast period as continued backing takes place.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
259 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
259 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A line of strong to severe storms is expected to develop over
central Kansas late this evening. These storms will gradually
weaken as they track east over the forecast area during the
overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts are possible with the
strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Any severe weather risk should end by Wednesday morning however
rain and occasional thunderstorms will persist through the day
into Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains of 1 to 2 inches appear
likely with higher amounts possible by late Wednesday night. This
could cause minor flooding of low lying areas or poor drainage
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
136 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

KSZ035-037-270700-
Dickinson-Morris-
136 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Dickinson and western Morris Counties through 200 AM CDT...

At 136 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Ramona, moving north at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Herington, White City, Hope, Woodbine and Latimer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 9693 3861 9724 3893 9708 3889 9693
      3887 9693 3887 9685 3883 9669 3852 9689
      3852 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0636Z 198DEG 44KT 3854 9703

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JP