Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
109 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Forecast focus remains on convective evolution overnight then on
timing of the front and associated convection Sunday.

Overall the model guidance in the short term appears to be in
general agreement on forcing and evolution of storms tonight.
Expect 925-850mb thetae advection to intensify along with
isentropic lift as the LLJ intensifies after 00z. Expect an axis
of elevated t-storms to develop along and north of I-70 moving
northeast through 6z. MUCAPE AOA 2000 j/kg along with effective
shear of 40-45kts will be sufficient to support organized storms
with the primary hazard being large hail tonight. There is an
outside scenario of near sfc based storms developing near ICT
tracking northeast this evening however it still appears that the
boundary layer in the CWA will remain stable but something to
monitor this evening.

Models suggest that the strongest isentropic lift/thetae
advection will shift north toward NE/KS border into northwest MO
after 6z with additional elevated storms expected within the axis
of the LLJ possible through 12z as what appears to be a subtle mid
level wave moves across the area so will keep t-storm chcs
ongoing overnight.

The upper wave will move across the state on Sunday morning
forcing the sfc low to the northeast through our area. Model
consensus on timing of the front suggest it will reach highway 75
around 18Z then out of the area by 20-21Z. Expect that convection
will just be developing along the front as it moves across the far
eastern counties and it will be a close call for severe risk
however at the moment it still appears that the front may exit the
CWA before storms mature.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

The next wave will approach the area Tues-Weds with some timing
and evolution discrepancies still noted between the ECMWF and GFS
so the exact severe risk remains in question for northeast Kansas
Tues/Tues night. The ECMWF suggests a much slower evolution with a
cutoff low across OK through Thurs while the GFS is more
progressive. Either way there appears to be some severe weather
risk later Tues with rain chances then lingering into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at  CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Expect low MVFR to IFR ceilings at the terminals through 14Z SUN.
There may be a few elevated thunderstorms in the KMHK vicinity
through the morning hours, and there may be a few elevated
thunderstorms that develop after 9Z SUN around the KTOP and KFOE
terminals. A cold front will move through the terminals during
the late morning and early afternoon hours, switching southerly
winds to the west and then northwest towards late afternoon. Winds
speeds will be 12 to 15 KTS with gusts to 20 to 25 KTS. There
will be low-level wind shear at the terminals through 14Z SUN.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Gargan

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
249 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-242000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
249 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop after sunset tonight mainly
north of interstate 70. Some of the storms will be capable of
producing large hail. Locally heavy rains will also occur with
these thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A frontal boundary is expected to move west to east across the
area Sunday. This boundary could spark additional thunderstorms
in the early to middle afternoon over far northeast and far east
central Kansas, some of which could become severe mainly along and
east of highway 75.

Additional storms are possible Wednesday into Thursday as another
system moves across the state.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1134 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

KSZ008-009-020-240500-
Republic-Cloud-Washington-
1134 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Republic, west central Washington and northeastern Cloud Counties
through MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1134 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Agenda, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morrowville, Haddam and Agenda.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3959 9742 3964 9751 3993 9731 3983 9710
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 218DEG 31KT 3966 9743

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1159 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

KSZ023-024-240530-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-
1159 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Pottawatomie and northern Jackson Counties through 1230 AM CDT...

At 1159 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Emmett, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holton, Emmett and Circleville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 9566 3926 9613 3934 9620 3957 9589
      3957 9580
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 235DEG 37KT 3934 9611

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1228 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

KSZ024-240600-
Jackson-
1228 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Jackson
County through 100 AM CDT...

At 1228 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Potawatomi Reservation, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holton, Whiting, Denison, Circleville, Netawaka and Potawatomi
Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9556 3957 9557 3942 9557 3942 9559
      3941 9559 3930 9589 3938 9599 3953 9585
      3965 9563 3965 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 238DEG 30KT 3937 9588

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1230 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

KSZ010-240545-
Marshall-
1230 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Marshall County through 1245 AM CDT...

At 1229 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Summerfield, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Summerfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 9624 3988 9642 3995 9657 4000 9652
      4000 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 227DEG 31KT 3995 9644

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
108 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

KSZ024-240645-
Jackson-
108 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Jackson
County through 145 AM CDT...

At 107 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Potawatomi Reservation, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holton and Whiting.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3958 9556 3957 9556 3957 9557 3943 9557
      3936 9590 3943 9596 3965 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0607Z 244DEG 33KT 3942 9587

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
138 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

KSZ012-240715-
Brown-
138 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Brown
County through 215 AM CDT...

At 138 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Powhattan, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Robinson and Willis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3977 9534 3967 9562 3971 9567 3993 9537
      3993 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 236DEG 38KT 3972 9560

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Reese