Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
646 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

This afternoon a mid level trough was moving across western Nebraska
into southeast Colorado while another wave was showing up across
eastern Nebraska into far northeast Kansas at 1930Z. An area of
convection has persisted from southwest Kansas into north central
Kansas through the day resulting in cooler temperatures and a more
stable atmosphere over north central Kansas. To the south where
skies were clear temperatures warmed into the 90s resulting in
SBCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg. A theta-e max and corresponding area near
1.5 to 2 inches of precipital water extended from northwest Oklahoma
across north central Kansas into eastern Nebraska.

The rest of the afternoon and tonight will gradually see an uptick
in convection as the mid level trough moves eastward and the low
level jet increases to around 40 kts this evening. A differential
heating boundary extends across central Kansas and will act as a
pseudo dryline as dew points to the south have mixed into the mid
60s while dewpoints in the lower 70s were present to the north.
Expect convection to continue to develop this afternoon in the
convergence area and move east northeast into north central Kansas.
The scattered activity is expected to continue into the evening
hours. As mentioned above the advance of the mid level trough and
low level jet will provide ample lift both dynamic and also
isentropic across eastern Kansas into southwest Iowa tonight. The
LLJ will veer to the southwest overnight focusing the potential for
heavy rainfall from northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and
adjacent parts of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. The area of
potential heavy rainfall shifts southward on Friday to areas south
of Interstate 70 where the 850 mb boundary sets up and where best
convergence is noted Friday night. There is the potential of 2 to 3
inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts. State of soils
precludes a flash flood watch at this time as much of the area has
been dry. On Saturday a trough will moves across the northern and
central Plains moving the front south out of Kansas and bringing an
end to rainfall.

A dry period is then expected from Sunday through next Thursday with
seasonal temps in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

Storms continue around the KMHK terminal with a more established
line of storms to the south and then another area of storms to the
northwest. Still anticipating storms move into KMHK terminal this
evening but may be delayed for a few hours. Storm timing for
KTOP/KFOE still appears to be later into the evening so have
little change for eastern terminals at this time but may need to
update if storms currently south of KMHK maintain themselves as
they advance east. Confidence in this is only medium at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
327 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-032030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
327 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe storms will continue to be possible this evening
and tonight across the outlook area. Damaging winds, large hail
and locally heavy rainfall will be the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are
possible Friday afternoon through Saturday and may result in
flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
549 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

KSZ034-022315-
Ottawa-
549 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Ottawa
County through 615 PM CDT...

At 548 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Lincoln to 6 miles south
of Beverly to 5 miles southeast of Kanopolis. Movement was northeast
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Tescott and Culver.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for north
central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3912 9793 3917 9760 3906 9759 3896 9764
      3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 241DEG 35KT 3909 9805 3893 9794 3865 9809

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Flanagan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
553 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

KSZ035-036-022330-
Geary-Dickinson-
553 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Dickinson and southwestern Geary Counties through 630 PM CDT...

At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Enterprise, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chapman, Enterprise and Woodbine.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 281 and 290.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central and
east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3906 9700 3887 9683 3887 9689 3882 9689
      3874 9713 3887 9722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 233DEG 23KT 3885 9710

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Flanagan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW WOODBINE          38.84N 97.00W
09/02/2021                   DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3-4 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN AND DIME AND
            PENNY-SIZED HAIL.

&&

NG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
658 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

KSZ036-037-030030-
Geary-Morris-
658 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Geary
and northwestern Morris Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 658 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles south of Grandview Plaza to near White
City to 5 miles northwest of Wilsey. Movement was northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
White City, Dwight and Parkerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for east central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 9681 3894 9683 3904 9654 3887 9650
      3868 9653 3865 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 246DEG 19KT 3896 9677 3881 9673 3869 9676

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Flanagan