Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
627 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

The main focus for this forecast is the chance for storms today
and tonight.

This afternoon, a weakly defined stationary front was located
across northern KS and extended into southeast NE and southern
IA. The stationary front will remain across northern KS into
southeast NE through most of the afternoon hours but will begin to
push southward this evening. Thunderstorms continue to develop
along the front as elevated instability and steep lapse rates
combine with weak convergence along the boundary. The SPC
mesoanalysis page has about 5000 J/Kg CAPE in a nearly uncapped
environment near the boundary. Effective and 0-6 Km shear on the
other hand appears to be minimal with values of 20 knots or less.
Therefore, some pulse type storms this afternoon and early
evening could become severe with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and
quarter size hail. However, if any updraft becomes more organized
with mesoscale rotation, there may be a larger hail threat with
the very high CAPE values. Models are all over the place when it
comes to the evolution of the front/storms this evening and
tonight. Continued development along the boundary across northern
Kansas this afternoon, followed by a congealing of storms into a
line segment along the main synoptic front this evening is the
most likely scenario based on the 12 UTC suite of data
available. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms could
continue along and north of the front into Friday morning. There
may be some brief heavy rainfall within the line of storms
tonight.

A weak mid-level wave may swing through northeast KS Friday and
Friday night. Off and on showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the day Friday as a result. Shower and thunderstorm
chances should gradually decrease through the overnight hours as
the front, mid-level wave and associated lift exit the area. Northeast
winds, cloud cover and periods of showers and thunderstorms will
keep temperatures quite a bit cooler Friday with highs in the low
to mid 80s.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Saturday as return
flow kicks in and another mid-level wave swings through the
northwest flow aloft. Cooler temperatures and occasional showers
and thunderstorms will highlight the forecast through mid-week as
we remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft and lee
surface troughing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

While showers and storms have generally avoided the main TAF sites
so far, they should become more widespread again by the late
evening hours. Ceilings will mostly remain VFR, but visibilities
in the heavier showers and storms could become MVFR and locally
worse. Conditions gradually improve by late tonight, with any
leftover showers or storms exiting by late tomorrow morning. In
general, winds will be from the northeast around 5 kts behind the
cold front, but will be widely variable around any stronger
convection.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ010>012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Reese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
214 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ010>012-022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059-131915-
Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Riley-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Geary-
Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-
Anderson-
214 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect today with heat indicies around 105
expected. See weather.gov/top for more details.

Strong to severe storms will be possible during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Damaging winds, frequent lightening
and heavy rain will be the main threats. Large hail may be
possible in the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035-131915-
Republic-Washington-Cloud-Clay-Ottawa-Dickinson-
214 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe storms will be possible during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Damaging winds, frequent lightening
and heavy rain will be the main threats. Large hail may be
possible in the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
434 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ034-122200-
Ottawa-
434 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Ottawa
County through 500 PM CDT...

At 434 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tescott. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tescott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 9793 3908 9778 3896 9778 3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 309DEG 0KT 3902 9788

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Reese

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
442 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             TESCOTT                 39.01N 97.88W
08/12/2021  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
502 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ039-040-055-122230-
Shawnee-Douglas-Osage-
502 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Shawnee, southwestern Douglas and northeastern Osage Counties through
530 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Richland, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Richland, Clinton and Clinton Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 9565 3888 9565 3896 9538 3879 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 255DEG 17KT 3885 9557

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Reese

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