Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
304 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

As of 20Z Saturday afternoon, upper level ridging continues to
reside across a portion of the central and southern Plains. An
elongated upper trough extends from northeast Canada through the
upper midwest with an attendant, weak surface trough axis extending
through northern KS. A modest temperature gradient exists behind the
trough axis, but this is mainly due to residual cloud cover from
earlier today. Otherwise, the Topeka forecast area remains within
the hot and humid sector with temperatures well into the 90s and dew
points in the low to mid 70s. Combining the two, heat index values
have risen into the 100-110 degree range for most. As the weak
frontal zone slides into the area this afternoon and tonight, there
may be a few showers/isolated storms. The primary concern with the
strongest storm would be lightning and gusty winds. Additional
showers/storms are possible Sunday as the boundary remains in the
area with weak mid/upper perturbations glancing the area. With the
likelihood for increased clouds and a few showers/storms tomorrow,
temperatures will a touch cooler with highs in the low to middle
90s. The humidity will remain nearly the same as today with
afternoon heat index values around 100.

Rain chances will taper off by Monday afternoon/evening as the upper
ridge amplifies and overspreads the central Plains. Monday's
temperatures are likely to be similar to Sunday with highs in the
low to mid 90s and heat index values around 100. The brutal and
excessive heat returns by Tuesday as highs touch the low to upper
90s. The heat further builds for Wednesday through Saturday as air
temperatures approach 100. With humid conditions remaining as well,
heat index values will approach heat advisory criteria each
afternoon (Wednesday-Saturday). Otherwise, rain chances appear
minimal through next week but may return next weekend as the upper
ridge regresses westward and a weak surface front approaches the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A stray storm
is possible this evening and overnight, although confidence is
much too low to introduce at the terminals. Otherwise, a weak
front will encroach the terminals through the period and gradually
transition winds to variable, although remaining below 10 kt.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Baerg
AVIATION...Baerg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-251630-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Afternoon heat index values up to 110 degrees are probable across
the outlook area this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the overnight
hours across the entire area. The primary concerns with any storm
will be lightning and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Dangerous heat may return by Wednesday into Thursday of the
upcoming week. Heat headlines may be warranted.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
432 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

KSZ009-242200-
Washington-
432 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

At 432 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Washington, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Washington and Morrowville.

LAT...LON 3974 9730 3996 9712 3985 9687 3967 9717
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 303DEG 8KT 3989 9708

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
452 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

KSZ009-010-242230-
Washington-Marshall-
452 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 452 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Hollenberg, moving south at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Hanover, Hollenberg and Bremen.

LAT...LON 3983 9669 3981 9713 4000 9708 4000 9669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 343DEG 10KT 3993 9695

Reese