Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
636 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Southwest flow persists across the region with a blocking pattern
keeping the longwave trough across the Intermountain West into the
Plains. A passing perturbation in the flow has lead to the
development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms in south-central
Kansas progressing ENE into the CWA. Expecting these storms to
continue to mature and grow upscale into clusters of storms as
forecast soundings and hodographs depict weak bulk shear around 25-
30 kts. Recent CAM guidance depicts another cluster of strong to
severe storms working into north central Kansas later this evening.
The main hazards will be damaging winds and large hail with storms
this afternoon and evening. Low-level shear is less supportive for
tornadoes, although there are a few lingering boundaries from
earlier convection that could locally enhance SRH and allow for a
few tornadoes to spin up. Heavy rainfall is also a concern as PWATs
remain near record values at around 2 inches, so these storms will
be efficient rainfall producers with 2-3 inch per hour rainfall
rates possible. Have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include Lyon
and Morris counties as the axis of heaviest precipitation is
expected southeast of a line from Council Grove to Topeka.
Maintained the Flash Flood Watch for areas north of this line as FFG
is low thanks to last night's torrential rain.

The heaviest of the precipitation is progged to move out of the
forecast area early Saturday morning. The surface boundary shifts
southeast through the day with another wave of energy sparking
additional storms Saturday afternoon and evening. The environment
looks less favorable for severe storms overall, although there could
still be a few severe storms with the best chances in east central
Kansas. The pattern does not change much through the rest of the
forecast period with the longwave trough lingering across the
Plains. Perturbations ejecting around the base of the trough will
lead to continued on-and-off precipitation chances into the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

The heaviest thunderstorms will remain south of KMHK/KFOE/KTOP
through the remainder of the evening and overnight, though some rain
and thunder will likely eventually spread northward with some minor
visibility restrictions possible. Rain should mostly clear out by
early tomorrow morning, though some scattered redevelopment of
storms is likely tomorrow afternoon. Ceilings will likely become
MVFR as the precipitation ends, gradually rising into the afternoon.
5 to 10 kt winds gradually veer from southeast to southwest and
eventually northwest by the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ010>012-023-
024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Reese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-262015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
315 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe weather is possible this afternoon into the overnight hours
for the entire area. Large hail, damaging wind, and flash
flooding due to heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. An
isolated tornado could also occur.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning.
Please reference this product for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms could develop on Saturday as a front moves through
the area. Isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts will be
possible, especially in east-central portions of Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed today or tonight. Spotters are encouraged
to report rainfall amounts over one inch to the National Weather
Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
709 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW OLPE              38.27N 96.18W
06/25/2021                   LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROADS REPORTED UNDER WATER ACROSS SOUTHERN
            LYON COUNTY.

&&

AJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
719 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ011-260045-
Nemaha-
719 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEMAHA COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM CDT...

At 719 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bern, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sabetha, Seneca, Bern, Oneida, Woodlawn and Baileyville.

LAT...LON 3977 9579 3974 9621 4000 9618 4000 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 258DEG 22KT 3994 9598

Gargan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
728 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ056-059-260100-
Franklin-Anderson-
728 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND EASTERN
ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 728 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles southeast of Greeley to 3 miles
southeast of Colony. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Garnett, Colony, Greeley, Kincaid and Lone Elm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3804 9508 3804 9544 3842 9522 3841 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 282DEG 15KT 3834 9507 3804 9532

Gargan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
800 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ059-260130-
Anderson-
800 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 759 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Parker to near Lone Elm.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kincaid and Lone Elm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3826 9507 3804 9508 3804 9537 3825 9515
      3827 9509 3827 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 299DEG 9KT 3824 9506 3804 9526

Gargan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
846 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ035-037-260215-
Dickinson-Morris-
846 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKINSON AND MORRIS
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 845 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northwest of Marquette to 7 miles
northwest of Durham to 8 miles northeast of Florence. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Herington, Council Grove, Solomon, Enterprise, White City,
Hope, Woodbine, Wilsey, Parkerville, Carlton, Dunlap, Latimer,
Council Grove Lake and Burdick.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3886 9677 3873 9635 3852 9636 3852 9693
      3861 9693 3861 9737 3893 9738 3892 9734
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 237DEG 40KT 3861 9800 3855 9734 3833 9683

Gargan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
902 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ009-010-260230-
Washington-Marshall-
902 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND WEST
CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 902 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barnes, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Barnes.

LAT...LON 3967 9690 3976 9699 3992 9682 3974 9666
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 237DEG 22KT 3976 9687

Gargan