Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
322 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

Latest satellite loop and VAD winds show a weak disturbance moving
through south central Kansas at 1930Z. Regional radar also shows a
small cluster of storms moving across south central Kansas and more
isolated convection across east central Kansas southeast of the
Turnpike at 1945Z.

Tonight, the convection across southern Kansas and east central
Kansas may linger through the early to mid evening hours. CAMS
solutions vary on the amount of convection coverage this evening
across northeast Kansas. Expect isolated convection to be the rule
with little in the way of forcing for ascent and a weak sheared
environment. Lows tonight will drop down into the low t mid 60s.

Wednesday will be dry for much of the day and into the evening hours
under the influence of the a mid level ridge. An MCS is forecast to
develop across western Nebraska and into northwest Kansas. Models
suggest that the MCS should progress eastward into north central
Kansas late in the evening and then continue across the region
through the overnight hours. Currently given the 850-300mb thickness
the MCS should move across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas
with a hail and wind threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible as good moisture transport through a deep later is forecast
Wednesday night which will increase precipitation efficiency. An
outflow boundary will likely be somewhere over east central Kansas
and be a focus for storms in the afternoon hours. Parameters for
severe weather will be in place for all modes to be possible within
the warm sector Thursday afternoon and evening.

A return to relatively dry weather occurs Friday into the first half
of the Memorial Day Weekend with a return of convection for Memorial
Day into next Tuesday. After highs in the 80s on Thursday,
temperatures cool off into the 070s for the Holiday Weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

Isolated TSRA expected at TOP and FOE through 03Z and may just
stay south of the FOE and TOP terminals. Expect tsra to remain to
the south of MHK through 00Z with some isolated TSRA possible in
the 00Z to 03Z time period. Winds south southwest around 10 kts
or less becoming east under 10kts after 15Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-262030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
324 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
and evening across the area. Large hail and damaging wind are the
primary hazards, but also cannot rule out locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Severe thunderstorms are again possible for portions of the area
Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are
all possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
420 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

KSZ034-252145-
Ottawa-
420 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

At 420 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Beverly, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Tescott and Culver.

LAT...LON 3910 9793 3912 9769 3896 9766 3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 255DEG 28KT 3896 9802

Teefey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
440 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

KSZ008-009-252215-
Republic-Washington-
440 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN REPUBLIC AND
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 439 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Narka, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Narka and Mahaska.

LAT...LON 4000 9708 3985 9709 3988 9746 4000 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 274DEG 26KT 3992 9738

Teefey