Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
327 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

This afternoon the mid level tough was moving into the Western
Kansas and West Texas and profilers show embedded energy ejecting
northeast into Kansas. Surface dew points have risen into the mid to
upper 40s at 19Z across eastern Kansas. Mesoanalysis shows
steepening mid level lapse rates ahead of the trough over Kansas as
well as 200-250 J/kg of MUCAPE and around 30 kts of effective shear
this afternoon at 19Z. Already seeing a few lightning strikes out of
convection is southeast Kansas on regional radar. Expect
precipitation to expand in coverage through late afternoon and
evening as lift increases across central and eastern Kansas.
Moisture transport vectors favor east central and southeast Kansas
and continue to expect the highest QPF over east central and
southeast Kansas into western Missouri tonight. As the mid level
trough axis shifts eastward of the area Saturday morning bringing an
end to precipitation by mid morning southeast of I-35. Lows tonight
cool back into the upper 30s in far north central kansas to the mid
and upper 40s in east central Kansas.

Expect to see temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than today on
Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds.

Good warm air advection on Sunday amid amplified ridging across the
southern and central Plains will send temperatures back into the
70s. The 850 mb thermal axis across central and northeast Kansas on
Monday will yield highs in the 80s.

The next system that will bring showers and thunderstorms back to
the area Tuesday into Wednesday continues to vary in speed and
placement amongst the mid range model solutions. Instability,
moisture and shear will be sufficient for strong to severe storms
later Tuesday into Wednesday. All modes of severe weather will be
possible. If the slower solutions of the ECMWF and CMC are correct
then precipitation will be possible into early Thursday across the
area. Will continue to monitor later model runs for this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

A mix of mvfr, ifr cigs are expected for much of the forecast
period at the terminals. Reduced vsbys at MHK due to drizzle and
mist in the mvfr to brief ifr range expected through 20Z. SHRA
chances increase at TOP and FOE after 21Z with isolated TSRA
possible as well through 01Z, with shra through 06Z after 01Z.
Winds southeast to south less than 10 kts, becoming variable after
07Z, then north after 13Z. Some lifr cigs possible at TOP and FOE
after 06Z. Improvement to vfr expected at MHK after 15Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
329 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

KSZ008>010-020-021-034-242030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Cloud-Clay-Ottawa-
329 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The threat is increasing for a severe weather event on Tuesday
and Wednesday across the region. All hazards will be possible,
which includes large hail, damaging winds, heavy rains, and
tornadoes. Please stay tuned for further updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KSZ011-012-022>024-026-035>040-054>056-058-059-242030-
Nemaha-Brown-Riley-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Dickinson-Geary-
Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-
Anderson-
329 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and tonight. Severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The threat is increasing for a severe weather event on Tuesday
and Wednesday across the region. All hazards will be possible,
which includes large hail, damaging winds, heavy rains, and
tornadoes. Please stay tuned for further updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
434 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

KSZ055-056-058-059-232200-
Coffey-Franklin-Osage-Anderson-
434 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND NORTHEASTERN COFFEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 433 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Beto Junction, moving east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebo, Waverly, Williamsburg, New Strawn, Harris and Beto Junction.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 148 and 177.

LAT...LON 3825 9581 3844 9588 3855 9537 3833 9532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 255DEG 40KT 3836 9574

JP