Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

Southwest flow persists aloft with a minor wave noted moving
northeast out of southeastern Colorado at midday. Surface low
pressure was objectively analyzed in northwest Kansas with a modest
warm front lying southeast into east-central Kansas. Thermodynamic
differences either side of the boundary are minor and upstream
low-level moisture is not much richer.

Minor changes from a few days ago have brought a few changes
to the main weather of note for this package. For later today and
tonight, the warm front appears to less sharp and farther southeast,
keeping the bulk of the MLCAPE across western and southern
locations. Most of the storm activity still appears to occur
north of the front this evening into pre-dawn Saturday as the wave
induces a moderate low-level jet and moisture advection over the
front. Available instability remains quite modest with effective
shear still supportive of some robust updrafts. Usually consider
storms in this area to be nearly completely a hail threat, though
the weak nature of the front suggests some wind concern too.
Any storms along and south of the front late this afternoon and
early this evening will need to be watched for low-level rotation
with low-level shear supportive of brief tornadoes. Boundary layer
should modify enough by late evening and bring and end to this
potential. An inverted surface trough sets up this this evening into
the overnight hours which would support some training of storms
across northeast Kansas and some precip totals around 1" are
possible, but these amounts should not pose a concern given flash
flood guidance values. Modest northwest winds and some cloud in a
largely-similar post-frontal airmass should allow Saturday's highs
to reach the lower to middle 60s with slightly warmer temps Sunday.

The other trend of note is conditions for Monday. Surface winds are
more veered and stronger than earlier progs. RH values also trending
lower, giving rise to a fire weather concern. Recent wet conditions
have likely mitigated some potential, but at least Very High levels
are possible, as well as Advisory-level wind speeds.

The next front passes through Monday night into Tuesday, with the
drier airmass keeping precip chances quite low with it. Minor
fire weather concerns could arise Tuesday afternoon though winds
are not nearly as strong. This airmass will keep moisture return
minimized into the end of next week for no precip mention with
temps not far from April 1 normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

Main concern is tsra affecting the terminals through 08Z. MHK
will initially be affected with tsra at the start of the period
through about 04Z. TSRA looks to affect TOP and FOE after 02Z or
so with some models keeping convection to the north through 05Z.
MVFR vsbys and cigs will be possible with any convection. Winds
east southeast around 10 kts becoming northwest around 10 kts in
the 13Z to 16Z period. Some mvfr cigs may also affect the MHK
terminal in the 12Z to 18Z time period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...65
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
253 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
253 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon in north central
and northeast Kansas. Thunderstorm chances spread across the
majority of the area for the evening and much of the overnight
hours. A few of the storms late this afternoon and early this
evening may be strong to severe with hail around an inch in
diameter and wind gusts around 60 MPH being the primary hazards.
A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Warm and windy conditions are expected Monday, which may result
in elevated fire danger.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

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