Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1154 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

A compact closed low over the Southwest early this afternoon is
progged to continue moving eastward across the Southern Rockies this
evening before emerging over the Southern Plains late tonight. This
system will bring increasing chances for elevated storms tonight and
Wednesday with rain changing to snow on the backside of the system
late Wed into Wednesday night.

Tonight-Wed night...We're still seeing plenty of MUCAPE progged (500-
1500 J/KG) with lengthy 1-6km shear vectors (40-55 kts) after 05-07Z
which remain supportive of elevated strong to severe storms with
large hail being the primary threat although a few severe wind gusts
may also be possible. Areas mainly south of I-70 will have the best
chance for a few severe storms. A brief lull is possible during the
morning hours but as the mid/upper trough moves into northeast OK,
an increasing TROWAL airstream and developing deformation axis
should fill in with precipitation. We may come close to wind
advisory criteria across portions of north central KS during the
afternoon hours with gusts of 30-35 knots possible. The best
instability by afternoon should remain south of the area but a
strong storm or two may remain possible. We could see some snow try
to mix in during the evening and overnight hours but the NAM remains
much colder in the surface layer when compared to the SREF/GFS so
confidence in accumulating snow remains fairly low at this time.
The snowfall forecast was trended upward slightly with around an
inch or so possible in the far northeast corner of the forecast
area in the vicinity of Brown county with lessor amounts as you
move south and west through Manhattan and towards Abilene. Large-
scale forcing for subsidence will overspread the region from west
to east as we move through the overnight hours with precipitation
ending from west to east during the early morning hours on
Thursday. Forecast rainfall up to around 2 inches may lead to some
flooding concerns given recent moisture over the past week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Thu-Fri...high pressure will build across the area in the wake of
the storm system with clearing expected from west to east. Seasonable
temperatures and dry weather conditions are anticipated on
Thursday with breezy northerly winds. As high pressure settles
over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley area on Friday, light east
and southeast winds will return to northeast Kansas with another
mild spring-like day anticipated on Friday with highs in the mid
and upper 50s.

Sat-Tue...A mid/upper ridge will move eastward across the
Appalachians over the weekend while a trough builds across the
Rockies. Mild and dry weather should prevail over the weekend with
increasing chances for showers and storms as we move into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

An area of showers and thunderstorms were developing southwest of
the terminals and will move northeast across the terminals after
6Z. Ceilings will drop below 1000 feet in the next hour or two and
remains in the 400 to 800 feet level through the remainder of the
TAF period. The elevated thunderstorms will shift northeast of
the area by noon Wednesday and then the light rain may mix with or
change to snow Wednesday night.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ICT
LONG TERM...ICT
AVIATION...Gargan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued by National Weather Service Wichita KS
257 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-172000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
257 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop after midnight tonight and
continue into Wednesday. Some of these storms tonight and early on
Wednesday could be strong to severe with large hail being the main
hazard although damaging winds will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are expected to continue Wednesday morning into the
afternoon, some of which could be strong to severe producing
large hail and damaging winds.

With wet soil from recent rainfall, additional rounds of moderate
precipitation through Wednesday could lead to flooding of creeks
and rivers.

Rain may mix with snow becoming all snow across portions
northeast Kansas late Wednesday night and into the early morning
hours on Thursday. Accumulations around 1 inch may be possible
before diminishing on Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     HAIL             OSAGE CITY              38.64N 95.83W
03/17/2021  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1253 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

KSZ039-040-055-170630-
Shawnee-Douglas-Osage-
1253 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...
NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM
CDT...

At 1253 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Overbrook, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Topeka, Lawrence, Carbondale, Eudora, Richland, Overbrook,
Clinton, Lone Star, Pleasant Grove, Clinton Lake, Globe and Berryton.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 186 and 204.

LAT...LON 3874 9548 3874 9550 3873 9550 3883 9584
      3906 9552 3899 9519 3896 9518 3898 9516
      3897 9513 3897 9511 3895 9509 3896 9508
      3896 9506 3894 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0553Z 231DEG 33KT 3882 9551

Gargan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
130 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     HAIL             4 NNE DOVER             39.02N 95.92W
03/17/2021  M0.75 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
209 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

KSZ037-038-054-170745-
Wabaunsee-Lyon-Morris-
209 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN MORRIS...SOUTHERN
WABAUNSEE AND NORTHWESTERN LYON COUNTIES...

At 208 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Bushong, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eskridge.

LAT...LON 3869 9616 3870 9648 3889 9642 3887 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0708Z 220DEG 21KT 3870 9634

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
228 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

KSZ026-039-170800-
Shawnee-Jefferson-
228 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN SHAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 228 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southern Topeka, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Tecumseh, Pauline and Grantville.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 175 and 185.

LAT...LON 3895 9566 3898 9578 3918 9573 3911 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 209DEG 15KT 3900 9569

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
301 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

KSZ026-170815-
Jefferson-
301 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

At 301 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Williamstown, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McLouth.

LAT...LON 3913 9519 3904 9519 3904 9527 3905 9528
      3904 9528 3913 9532 3925 9518 3913 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 221DEG 18KT 3907 9522