Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1213 PM MDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be a cooler day today, along with scattered rain showers or
isolated thunderstorms, with most of the precipitation falling this
afternoon. It turns drier and warmer over the weekend, with Sunday
looking to dry and warm, with afternoon highs in the 80s. It remains
warm early next week, but cooler temperatures return by the middle
portion of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

A passing Pacific front will bring gusty west to northwesterly
winds today, along with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
Increased winds a bit for this afternoon and adjusted pops per
current trends. Otherwise, the current forecast package is in
decent shape. -RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
1213 PM MDT Fri Aug 27 2021 (27/18Z TAF period)

VFR conditions are generally expected over the region, but scattered
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected over the region
through this evening. The main line of showers is now crossing the
Divide and will continue to move east through the afternoon and
winds may briefly gust up to 40 kts during the onset. Otherwise,
West to northwest surface winds will remain in the 15 to 25 kt range
through this evening. Some mountains/passes could be obscured at
times by lower level clouds through tonight. -RCG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 405 AM MDT Fri Aug 27 2021/
Today through Tonight...The next upper level weather disturbance
is quickly approaching the region from the west this morning. Some
shower activity is trying to develop in the Cut Bank area already
this morning. Expect the showers/thunderstorms to become a bit
more widespread this afternoon over Central and North Central MT.
No severe storms are expected today. Most of the precipitation
exits the region overnight tonight. Afternoon highs today will be
cooler than yesterday, generally averaging about 10 degrees below
normal.

Saturday through Monday...Generally expect dry conditions along
with above normal temperatures for a few days. Any showers will be
ending early on Saturday, with afternoon temperatures warming into
the 80s for many areas for Sunday and Monday. With a dry airmass
in place, overnight lows will cool into the 40s and 50s.

Tuesday through Friday...Overall the weather pattern will start to
shift to a more unsettled westerly flow aloft, with weather
disturbances trying to move eastward into our region. However, the
models differ on the strength and timing of each disturbance, thus
the overall confidence in the forecast from Wednesday onward is
quite low at this time. Overall the continued trend of using the
NBM looks to be on track for this time period. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  46  72  44 /  50  20  10   0
CTB  65  45  70  43 /  70  30  10   0
HLN  71  48  75  48 /  50  10   0   0
BZN  71  43  71  41 /  20  20   0   0
WYS  65  33  66  30 /  10  30   0   0
DLN  70  39  70  40 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  73  48  73  47 /  60  30  10   0
LWT  66  44  67  44 /  70  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
239 PM MDT Fri Aug 27 2021

MTZ010-272100-
Eastern Glacier MT-
239 PM MDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...A thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Glacier
County through 300 PM MDT...

At 237 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm 22 miles
north of North Browning, or 33 miles northwest of Cut Bank, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Glacier County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief cold-air
funnel clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare
occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50
mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your
sighting to the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4889 11312 4900 11291 4880 11256 4863 11286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 318DEG 11KT 4889 11295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

PN