Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
458 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...

The recent warmth will continue through Thursday, with just some
isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area. Cooler air
will begin to work into the area on Friday, bringing highs in the
70s for most of the area over the weekend, as well as additional
shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend as a brief
break in the otherwise hot and dry summer pattern continues. A
weak upper level disturbance will push through the area today, and
has already begun to kick off a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the plains this afternoon. Given the rather
dry lower levels, there will be some risk of strong, gusty outflow
winds with showers and storms today, especially as they collapse.

Another, more potent disturbance will push into the area tomorrow
afternoon from the southwest, which will bring a higher chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially across
Southwestern Montana. With a dry mixed layer again tomorrow, these
showers and thunderstorms may be on the gusty side, and lightning
outside of the thunderstorms will create a concern for new fire
starts. With that in mind, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for
portions of Southwestern Montana for tomorrow afternoon. As of now
it goes through midnight, but a transition to wetter, more
widespread thunderstorms may allow for this to end a little
earlier than currently expected.

As we head into the weekend, upper level troughing will set up
across the Northern US and Canadian Rockies, which will result in
a cooler and wetter air mass working its way into Montana. Highs
across most of the area this weekend will only reach into the 70s
at lower elevations, with the higher elevations topping out in the
50s. Might have to watch snow levels to see if some of the higher
peaks in Glacier see a few snowflakes, but odds are that snow
levels stay just above the peaks.

After the cooler weekend, upper level ridging will build back
into the area next week, bringing us back to more seasonable
temperatures with few chances for precipitation. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
458 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021 (05/00Z TAF period)

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move east
across the area this evening into the early overnight before
diminishing. Hail and strong gusty winds are possible, with greatest
likelihood at KCTB and KHVR, but can't be ruled out anywhere
completely. After a calm night, expect showers and thunderstorms to
return tomorrow afternoon and evening from KGTF-KLWT south. Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across Southwestern Montana
tomorrow afternoon through the evening. Given the dry lower
levels, thunderstorms will likely start out on the dry side, with
gusty outflow winds and dry lightning possible. Looking towards
the weekend, Saturday and Sunday will likely be dry and breezy,
with critical fire weather conditions possible both days. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  54  92  61 /  20  20  10  30
CTB  90  52  89  60 /  30  30   0  20
HLN  95  60  94  61 /  20  10  20  50
BZN  90  54  91  55 /  20  10  30  60
WYS  80  43  81  47 /  30  20  30  70
DLN  87  53  86  53 /  20  10  40  80
HVR  91  58  92  63 /  20  40   0  20
LWT  88  55  90  59 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
night Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest
Areas...Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena
National Forest...Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National
Forest.

Red Flag Warning from noon Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
night Deerlodge/Western Beaverhead National Forest...Eastern
Beaverhead National Forest.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
631 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

MTZ044-045-050115-
Liberty MT-Toole MT-
631 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Liberty
and east central Toole Counties through 715 PM MDT...

At 631 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northeast of Shelby, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Devon and Galata.

This includes Highway 2 between mile markers 294 and 307.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4852 11170 4869 11162 4866 11118 4839 11130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 286DEG 21KT 4859 11158

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
653 PM MDT WED AUG 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             2 WNW GREAT FALLS       47.51N 111.33W
08/04/2021  U1.00 INCH       CASCADE            MT   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

SAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
655 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

MTZ012-013-050130-
Chouteau MT-Cascade MT-
655 PM MDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Chouteau and northeastern Cascade Counties through 730 PM MDT...

At 655 PM MDT, the public reported a strong thunderstorm over Black
Eagle, or over Great Falls, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Great Falls, Belt, Black Eagle, Highwood, Armington, Malmstrom Afb,
Sand Coulee, Tracy and Centerville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 15 between mile markers 278 and 281.
 Highway 87 between mile markers 4 and 7.
 Highway 89 between mile markers 72 and 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Great Falls.

&&

LAT...LON 4741 11137 4759 11135 4761 11075 4734 11077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 273DEG 28KT 4750 11125

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SC

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