Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
440 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will move through Southwest and Central MT
this evening, while a cool front moves southward from Canada through
North Central MT after Midnight. Overall temperatures will be
above normal all week, with Wednesday likely being the hottest
work day. There will be scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday,
but a significant amount of precipitation is not expected at this
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...The first round of showers/storms is
exiting the eastern portions of the region at 2 PM, as the next
wave of thunderstorms moves into the western portions of the
region. These storms will move through our region late this
afternoon/evening and could impact firework display, mostly south
of a line from Helena to Lewistown. A wind shift will move
southward through North Central MT, mostly after Midnight. On
Monday, NBM temperatures look on track. I don't think the cloud
cover will be enough to hold temperatures down, along with the dry
soil conditions. In Southwest MT, afternoon temperatures still
look to approach 90 degrees. Temperatures warm to about 4 to 8
degrees above normal on Tuesday afternoon, with a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible around Havre/Harlem.

Wednesday through Friday...An upper level disturbance will move
through the region on Wednesday, thus the chances for
thunderstorms look a bit higher on this day. It is hot ahead of
this disturbance, with the airmass cooling a bit for Thu/Fri.
Although afternoon temperatures are likely to remain above
normal.

Saturday and Sunday...Overall expect above normal temperatures
next weekend along with dry conditions, as the upper level ridge
rebuilds over the region. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
440 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 (05/00Z TAF period)

VFR conditions are mostly expected through this 24 hour period.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms with periods of MVFR conditions will
move over portions of Central and Southwest Montana through 08z or
so, mainly along and south of a KHLN-KLWT line. A surface wind shift
to the northwest/north will move southward through the Hi-Line
between 06Z and 10Z and over the remainder of the plains between 10Z
and 14Z. Ceilings over the plains will mostly fall to low VFR to
high MVFR through around 18Z or so, but the KCTB could have periods
of IFR ceilings. An isolated shower is possible along this cool
front, but confidence is low at this point that any shower will
affect a terminal. However, another disturbance could bring another
round of scattered showers/thunderstorms to southwest Montana
between 12Z and 20Z. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms may also
redevelop in the wake of this disturbance after 20Z with daytime
heating. -Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorms are expected over the Central and Southern portions
of the region this evening, as a wind shift moves through the
northern portions of the region after Midnight. Wednesday looks to
be hot, along with thunderstorms. On Thursday, the upper level
ridge breaks down, resulting in higher wind speeds. There is the
potential that some fire weather highlights might be needed for
portions of the region later this week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  54  89 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  54  76  53  82 /   0  10  30  10
HLN  61  89  58  95 /  20  10  10   0
BZN  57  88  52  94 /  40  20  10  10
WYS  48  75  41  84 /  40  60  20  10
DLN  57  87  51  91 /  40  30   0   0
HVR  57  84  56  85 /  10  10  30  30
LWT  58  82  55  85 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
713 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

MTZ050-051-050145-
Fergus-Judith Basin-
713 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTIES...

At 713 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hobson, or 20
miles west of Lewistown, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and brief heavy rain are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Hobson, Moore, Moccasin, Ackley Lake State Park, Glengarry
and Buffalo.

This includes Highway 200 between mile markers 55 and 79.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4685 10999 4710 10990 4705 10941 4675 10951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 281DEG 20KT 4697 10984

SC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>