Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
440 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will move through Southwest and Central MT
this evening, while a cool front moves southward from Canada through
North Central MT after Midnight. Overall temperatures will be
above normal all week, with Wednesday likely being the hottest
work day. There will be scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday,
but a significant amount of precipitation is not expected at this
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...The first round of showers/storms is
exiting the eastern portions of the region at 2 PM, as the next
wave of thunderstorms moves into the western portions of the
region. These storms will move through our region late this
afternoon/evening and could impact firework display, mostly south
of a line from Helena to Lewistown. A wind shift will move
southward through North Central MT, mostly after Midnight. On
Monday, NBM temperatures look on track. I don't think the cloud
cover will be enough to hold temperatures down, along with the dry
soil conditions. In Southwest MT, afternoon temperatures still
look to approach 90 degrees. Temperatures warm to about 4 to 8
degrees above normal on Tuesday afternoon, with a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible around Havre/Harlem.

Wednesday through Friday...An upper level disturbance will move
through the region on Wednesday, thus the chances for
thunderstorms look a bit higher on this day. It is hot ahead of
this disturbance, with the airmass cooling a bit for Thu/Fri.
Although afternoon temperatures are likely to remain above
normal.

Saturday and Sunday...Overall expect above normal temperatures
next weekend along with dry conditions, as the upper level ridge
rebuilds over the region. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
440 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021 (05/00Z TAF period)

VFR conditions are mostly expected through this 24 hour period.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms with periods of MVFR conditions will
move over portions of Central and Southwest Montana through 08z or
so, mainly along and south of a KHLN-KLWT line. A surface wind shift
to the northwest/north will move southward through the Hi-Line
between 06Z and 10Z and over the remainder of the plains between 10Z
and 14Z. Ceilings over the plains will mostly fall to low VFR to
high MVFR through around 18Z or so, but the KCTB could have periods
of IFR ceilings. An isolated shower is possible along this cool
front, but confidence is low at this point that any shower will
affect a terminal. However, another disturbance could bring another
round of scattered showers/thunderstorms to southwest Montana
between 12Z and 20Z. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms may also
redevelop in the wake of this disturbance after 20Z with daytime
heating. -Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorms are expected over the Central and Southern portions
of the region this evening, as a wind shift moves through the
northern portions of the region after Midnight. Wednesday looks to
be hot, along with thunderstorms. On Thursday, the upper level
ridge breaks down, resulting in higher wind speeds. There is the
potential that some fire weather highlights might be needed for
portions of the region later this week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  54  89 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  54  76  53  82 /   0  10  30  10
HLN  61  89  58  95 /  20  10  10   0
BZN  57  88  52  94 /  40  20  10  10
WYS  48  75  41  84 /  40  60  20  10
DLN  57  87  51  91 /  40  30   0   0
HVR  57  84  56  85 /  10  10  30  30
LWT  58  82  55  85 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
417 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

MTZ052-053-042245-
Broadwater-Jefferson-
417 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BROADWATER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES...

At 414 PM MDT, radar thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 21 miles north of Toston to 8 miles southwest of
Townsend to 9 miles northeast of Divide. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Townsend, Boulder, Whitehall, Toston, Cardwell, Winston, Radersburg,
Elk Park, Silos, Elkhorn State Park and Goose Bay.

cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If you are on or near Canyon Ferry Lake, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4633 11189 4669 11146 4668 11142 4664 11141
      4662 11132 4654 11134 4650 11125 4644 11125
      4645 11112 4640 11106 4628 11113 4620 11106
      4619 11134 4607 11142 4600 11141 4580 11171
      4586 11204 4575 11219 4583 11240 4612 11250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 282DEG 9KT 4648 11137 4621 11161 4584 11260

RCG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
432 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

MTZ050-051-042300-
Fergus-Judith Basin-
432 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN JUDITH BASIN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTIES...

At 431 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 18 miles south of
Hobson, or 20 miles north of Harlowton, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo and Garneill.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4670 10982 4676 10998 4682 10998 4690 10946
      4669 10945
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 268DEG 22KT 4673 10987

RCG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
449 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

MTZ015-052>055-042315-
Broadwater-Madison-Jefferson-Gallatin-Meagher-
449 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BROADWATER...
SOUTHEASTERN MEAGHER...NORTH CENTRAL MADISON...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON
AND NORTHERN GALLATIN COUNTIES...

At 448 PM MDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 23 miles west of Harlowton to 10 miles
northwest of Silver Star. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph, brief heavy rain, and frequent lightning
are likely with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Townsend, White Sulphur Springs, Three Forks, Manhattan, Whitehall,
Toston, Harrison, Ringling, Martinsdale, Missouri Headwaters State
Park, Cardwell, Logan, Radersburg, Maudlow, Lewis And Clark Caverns
State Park, Lennep, Trident, Willow Creek, Menard and Checkerboard.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between mile markers 232 and 294.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 1  and 77, and between mile markers
76 and 109.
 Highway 287 between mile markers 76 and 97.
 Highway 89 between mile markers 1 and 2, and between mile markers 39
and 57.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If you are on or near Canyon Ferry Lake, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4601 11245 4672 11053 4668 11046 4670 11027
      4619 11028 4620 11077 4588 11080 4566 11200
      4585 11243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 282DEG 33KT 4645 11032 4582 11241

SC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
519 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

MTZ015-052>055-042345-
Broadwater-Madison-Jefferson-Gallatin-Meagher-
519 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BROADWATER...
SOUTHEASTERN MEAGHER...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHERN GALLATIN COUNTIES...

At 518 PM MDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 16 miles south of White Sulphur Springs
to 10 miles north of Manhattan to near Silver Star. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and frequent lightning are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
White Sulphur Springs, Belgrade, Three Forks, Manhattan, Whitehall,
Pony, Toston, Harrison, Norris, Ringling, Waterloo, Missouri
Headwaters State Park, Cardwell, Logan, Radersburg, Maudlow, Lewis
And Clark Caverns State Park, Amsterdam, Lennep and Trident.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

LAT...LON 4574 11228 4575 11219 4580 11231 4603 11245
      4629 11152 4665 11074 4621 11028 4618 11029
      4620 11077 4586 11079 4577 11095 4538 11206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 312DEG 22KT 4632 11080 4601 11132 4569 11224

RCG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
519 PM MDT SUN JUL 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE DILLON             45.26N 112.55W
07/04/2021  M54 MPH          BEAVERHEAD         MT   ASOS

            GUST OCCURRED FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORM.

&&

SAC