Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
822 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread across north
central and southwest Montana this afternoon through late
evening Some storms could become severe across north central
Montana, producing strong and gusty outflow winds, large hail. On
Thursday, a Pacific cool front moves through the region,
producing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. It
turns drier and warmer over the weekend, with near record high
temperatures possible early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorm and shower activity was a bit slow to get going, and
the coverage of strong to severe storms has been less than
expected. However, convective activity is picking up, and eastern
portions of the Great Falls forecast area have seen a few storms
producing large hail. Furthermore, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch
remains in effect through midnight with a few more strong storms
likely. At this time I will not be making any updates to the
forecast, but I expect that at least one update will be required
later this evening when the watch expires or is cancelled. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
545 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021 (10/00Z TAF period)

Showers and thunderstorms have been a bit slow to get going this
afternoon, but activity is expected to develop during the early
evening hours. Best likelihood for storms will be east of a line from
Great Falls to Havre. Some storms could become severe with the
potential for strong winds, moderate to large hail, and a slight
risk for a tornado. Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm will persist overnight into Thursday morning. Another
round of stronger storms is expected to develop after 18Z Thursday.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, but
IFR/MVFR conditions should be expected in precipitation. mpj

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021/

Tonight through Friday...Once again, an unsettled southwesterly flow
aloft with an embedded disturbance will prevail across western and
central Montana late this afternoon through this evening. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms will develop between 4 PM and 6 PM MDT and
some storms are expected to become severe with strong outflow winds,
large hail, and a small risk for an isolated tornado. Strong to
severe storms are expected to diminish by late evening, but showers
and a few thunderstorms cold continue overnight and into Thursday
morning. On Thursday, a Pacific cool front will move through the
region by afternoon. Expect gusty west winds to develop behind the
front. There will continue to be a chance for thunderstorms along
the front as well, with a marginal risk of severe storms over the
eastern portions of the region during the late afternoon and
evening. Afternoon temperatures on Thursday will be well below
normal over the western portions of the area, and near normal
elsewhere. Friday morning low temperatures will be near freezing in
some locations, especially across southwestern Montana. Mostly dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected on Friday.

Saturday through Wednesday...Expect mostly dry conditions, along
with a significant warming trend from Saturday through Tuesday.
The peak of the next heat wave looks to occur on Tuesday, with
afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s in many areas. At
this time, probability information indicates most areas should
remain below 100 degrees. On Wednesday, a Pacific cool front will
move through the region, resulting in windy conditions developing.
Fire concerns could start to increase by this time next week.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  66  41  71 /  50  70  30   0
CTB  45  58  40  66 /  80  80  10   0
HLN  52  71  40  74 /  30  90  20   0
BZN  49  75  35  71 /  10  70  40   0
WYS  43  60  27  61 /  10  60  40   0
DLN  49  65  32  67 /  10 100  30   0
HVR  54  74  46  72 /  60  50  40   0
LWT  50  77  40  69 /  30  60  70   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
800 PM MDT WED JUN 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             2 NW COFFEE CREEK       47.37N 110.11W
06/09/2021  M1.00 INCH       FERGUS             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
804 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MTZ050-100230-
Judith Basin-
804 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY...

At 803 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Geyser, or 14
miles west of Stanford, moving north at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Geyser.

This includes Highway 200 between mile markers 16 and 28.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

When thunder roars, go indoors!

LAT...LON 4712 11044 4714 11063 4741 11059 4741 11023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 199DEG 31KT 4722 11050

JAF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
819 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MTZ048-100245-
Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
819 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN TETON COUNTY...

At 818 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 15 miles west of
Choteau, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pendroy and Bynum.

This includes Highway 89 between mile markers 46 and 65.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

When thunder roars, go indoors!

LAT...LON 4771 11250 4781 11278 4811 11290 4811 11223
      4793 11209
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 208DEG 44KT 4787 11251

JAF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
831 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MTZ013-100300-
Chouteau-
831 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY...

At 831 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 15 miles northeast
of Fort Benton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Virgelle.

This includes Highway 87 between mile markers 66 and 73.

When thunder roars, go indoors.

LAT...LON 4778 11035 4788 11048 4817 11031 4799 10996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 214DEG 34KT 4791 11035

JAF

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
848 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MTZ011-100315-
Hill-
848 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL HILL COUNTY...

At 847 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 29 miles north of
Beaver Creek, or 30 miles north of Havre, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Hill
County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4888 10982 4894 11006 4900 11004 4900 10953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 245DEG 47KT 4898 10979

JAF