Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
802 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough/low on the north-central Gulf coast this
evening shifts across north FL by morning then eases northeastward
off the eastern seaboard during Sat. A low pressure center just off
the mouth of Tampa Bay this evening tracks northeastward...across
the state overnight then out over the Atlantic Sat...with a cold
front trailing back to the southwest.

While there is currently a break in the widespread convection from
earlier today the features noted above will provide a moisture
atmosphere with enough instability and lift to support widely
scattered robust thunderstorms throughout the rest of the night.
Although the loss of daytime heating will help inhibit instability.
A few storms could pose the risk for mainly damaging winds. A
weak tornado or waterspout may be possible but the potential for
a strong/sustained one appears low. After daybreak Sat the
convection begins to lift north and is expected to clear the
entire area by afternoon.

As the surface low and front move away strong northwest winds
spread across the Gulf...creating hazardous beach conditions for
at at least part of the weekend. Both a High Rip Current Risk and
a High Surf Advisory start tonight and continue into Sun. Cooler
air will work in with temperatures running a few degrees below
seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
06/00-06/24Z. Generally prevailing MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS with SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA continue overnight and drop to IFR for all terminals
overnight. As the low pressure and front move away VFR CIGS and NSW
move in from the west Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
We have had a few special marine warnings issued today and
anticipate having a couple of more before the night is out. Offshore
buoys have reported some gusts to 25 knots. These winds will
increase throughout the night as they shift from northeast to
northwest and continue into early Sun...with dangerous boating
conditions. High pressure begins to build in during
Sun...allowing winds and seas to start to slowly subside.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  60  66  57  71 /  50  10  20   0
FMY  65  75  59  75 /  30   0  10  10
GIF  57  67  53  71 /  50   0  10  10
SRQ  62  70  58  72 /  40  10  20  10
BKV  52  62  49  69 /  60  20  20   0
SPG  62  67  60  70 /  50  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 AM EDT Saturday through Sunday
     morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
     Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 AM EDT Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM EDT Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM EDT Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay
     waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...97/Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...97/Flannery

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
536 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-052145-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
536 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds...locally heavy rains... and frequent deadly lightning
strikes. A few may become severe...with isolated tornadoes
possible in addition to damaging wind gusts.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rainfall is expected. The heavy rain will produce
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas as well as the
ponding of water on roadways. Motorists should exercise caution.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots will create hazardous boating
conditions for small craft operators. Some gusts to gale force
will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
For Saturday, high surf may produce rip currents along area
beaches.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
For Saturday through Sunday morning, wind speeds of 20 to 33
knots will create hazardous boating conditions for small craft
operators.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Carlisle

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
419 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

FLZ251-255-052045-
Inland Manatee FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
419 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Manatee
and southeastern Hillsborough Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Parrish, or 19 miles south of Fish Hawk, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Duette, Lake Manatee State Park, Fort Lonesome and Myakka Head.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2746 8239 2765 8235 2779 8209 2745 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 236DEG 19KT 2758 8227

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
646 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

FLZ155-160-255-260-052330-
Inland Manatee FL-Coastal Manatee FL-Inland Sarasota FL-
Coastal Sarasota FL-
646 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Manatee and
northwestern Sarasota Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 646 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
South Sarasota, or near Sarasota, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sarasota, Bradenton, Lakewood Ranch, Sarasota Springs, South Gate
Ridge, Lake Sarasota, Saint Armands Key, North Sarasota, Sarasota
Bradenton Airport, Southgate, Gulf Gate Estates, The Meadows, Ridge
Wood Heights, South Sarasota, Kensington Park, Vamo, Desoto Lakes,
Fruitville, Osprey and Gator Creek Estate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2749 8252 2736 8227 2712 8252 2717 8259
      2728 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 213DEG 16KT 2726 8256

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
716 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

FLZ160-260-052345-
Inland Sarasota FL-Coastal Sarasota FL-
716 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Sarasota
County through 745 PM EDT...

At 716 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Sarasota, or 10 miles southeast of Sarasota, moving east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gulf Gate Estates, Myakka River State Park, South Gate Ridge, Lake
Sarasota, Ridge Wood Heights, South Sarasota, Sarasota Springs,
Osprey, Gator Creek Estate, Vamo, Laurel, Oscar Scherer State Park,
Bee Ridge, Hidden River, Nokomis and Fruitville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2738 8228 2728 8225 2721 8225 2721 8223
      2714 8221 2711 8247 2728 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 252DEG 15KT 2722 8243

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
848 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

FLZ160-162-060115-
Coastal Charlotte FL-Coastal Sarasota FL-
848 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Charlotte
County through 915 PM EDT...

At 848 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southwest of North Port, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
North Port, Port Charlotte, Murdock, Gulf Cove, El Jobean, Palm
Island, Placida, Rotonda and Grove City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2692 8242 2703 8214 2677 8207 2675 8222
      2675 8226 2676 8226 2675 8227 2675 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 255DEG 14KT 2685 8234

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW