Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
244 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Developing area of low pressure will track across the central
Florida peninsula tonight. Band of showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Tampa area and offshore the
Manatee/Sarasota coastline is tracking east northeast. Strongest
cell which has had a history of rotation is moving over Anna
Maria Island. This is at the leading edge of mid level dry air
intrusion on the east side of the U/L low which is enhancing
convective instability with this band of showers.

And this mid level dry slot is pushing slowly east and will cause
a brief pause in precipitation across the central and southern
forecast area for a few hours this afternoon. However additional
band of showers and isolated thunderstorms should redevelop late
this afternoon/early this evening ahead of a cold front as
moisture associated with the main U/L low translates east creating
an additional moisture convergence boundary aloft...combined with
the cold pool aloft which will aid in steepening lapse
rates/enhancing convective instability. Sufficient deep layer shear
is present for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm, will
continue to monitor as that region translates east over the next
several hours.

As the area of low pressure moves east of the area overnight,
strong northwest winds on the backside of the system will spread
over the coastal waters with gale force winds creating very
hazardous seas on the northern and central waters. High surf
along with a high risk of rip currents will also develop tonight
and will persist through Saturday night. Winds and seas will
subside a bit on Saturday, however small craft advisory conditions
are expected to persist with continued hazardous seas. Scattered
showers will also continue as the area of low pressure will be
very slow to move away from the region with additional U/L energy
rotating down the backside of the system squeezing out any
available remaining low/mid level moisture.

The area of low pressure surface and aloft will finally exit to
the northeast late Saturday night and Sunday with clearing skies
and cool dry air advecting across the region as high pressure
builds over the area. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
generally be in the 70s.

Increasing chance of showers late in the week as return flow
develops with temperatures and moisture gradually recovering ahead
of an approaching weak cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally MVFR CIGS 015-025 across the area with scattered to
numerous showers mainly over the next several hours creating LCL
IFR CIGS 008-010 and MVFR VSBYS which may impact all terminals.
MVFR CIGS expected overnight 020-030 with a continued chance of
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will deteriorate rapidly overnight as the
gradient tightens behind an area of low pressure with winds
increasing to gale force over the northern and central waters.
Although winds and seas will subside somewhat on Saturday, small
craft advisory conditions are expected to continue. High pressure
will build over the waters Sunday through early next week with
winds and seas gradually subsiding.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards through Sunday as afternoon relative
humidity values are expected to remain above critical values each
day.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  60  66  57  71 /  50  10  20   0
FMY  65  75  59  75 /  30   0  10  10
GIF  57  67  53  71 /  50   0  10  10
SRQ  62  70  58  72 /  40  10  20  10
BKV  52  62  49  69 /  60  20  20   0
SPG  62  67  60  70 /  50  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 AM EDT Saturday through Sunday
     morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
     Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 AM EDT Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM EDT Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM EDT Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay
     waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
536 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-052145-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
536 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds...locally heavy rains... and frequent deadly lightning
strikes. A few may become severe...with isolated tornadoes
possible in addition to damaging wind gusts.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rainfall is expected. The heavy rain will produce
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas as well as the
ponding of water on roadways. Motorists should exercise caution.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots will create hazardous boating
conditions for small craft operators. Some gusts to gale force
will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
For Saturday, high surf may produce rip currents along area
beaches.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
For Saturday through Sunday morning, wind speeds of 20 to 33
knots will create hazardous boating conditions for small craft
operators.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Carlisle

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
419 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

FLZ251-255-052045-
Inland Manatee FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
419 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Manatee
and southeastern Hillsborough Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Parrish, or 19 miles south of Fish Hawk, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Duette, Lake Manatee State Park, Fort Lonesome and Myakka Head.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2746 8239 2765 8235 2779 8209 2745 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 236DEG 19KT 2758 8227

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
646 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

FLZ155-160-255-260-052330-
Inland Manatee FL-Coastal Manatee FL-Inland Sarasota FL-
Coastal Sarasota FL-
646 PM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Manatee and
northwestern Sarasota Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 646 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
South Sarasota, or near Sarasota, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sarasota, Bradenton, Lakewood Ranch, Sarasota Springs, South Gate
Ridge, Lake Sarasota, Saint Armands Key, North Sarasota, Sarasota
Bradenton Airport, Southgate, Gulf Gate Estates, The Meadows, Ridge
Wood Heights, South Sarasota, Kensington Park, Vamo, Desoto Lakes,
Fruitville, Osprey and Gator Creek Estate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2749 8252 2736 8227 2712 8252 2717 8259
      2728 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 213DEG 16KT 2726 8256

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW