Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
303 PM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure is reinforced today from the north, with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the southern half
of the area where the deepest moisture remains. Drier air will be
continuing to push south through the area through the evening and
overnight hours as a low lifts off the Carolinas coast. Weak high
pressure will then remain over the area with a trough just to the
east through the week as a trough in place over the eastern sea
board aloft cuts off and settles south over the SE FL through
early next week and then over the Cuba region as an upper high
over the Gulf shifts up and over the low through the week.
Generally lower rain chances will be in place through the week,
but will still get scattered showers and storms, and the cooler
air aloft early in the week may allow for a few stronger storms.
Highs will be in the mid 80s to around 90, and lows will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
W/NW winds will continue through the afternoon with some scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms possible mainly at the southern
terminals through around 01z. Winds then become light and variable
with skies clearing through the overnight hours. Light NE/E flow
will increase in the late morning Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will be in place across the waters through the week,
with weak E/NE winds and daily afternoon sea breezes turning winds
onshore near the coast. Drier air in place will keep rain chances
lower, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible
mainly in the afternoons and evenings. No headlines expected
through the period, but winds and seas locally higher near the
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  72  87  72  87 /   0  10   0  10
FMY  71  88  70  87 /  10  10  10  20
GIF  69  87  69  89 /  10  20   0  20
SRQ  71  88  70  88 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  87  65  88 /   0  10   0  10
SPG  75  86  75  86 /   0  10  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 2

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to the link below
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
613 PM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

FLZ052-057-092245-
Highlands FL-Polk FL-
613 PM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Highlands and southeastern Polk Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 613 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Lake Kissimmee, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
River Ranch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2764 8114 2760 8114 2756 8118 2755 8121
      2753 8121 2751 8120 2749 8121 2748 8118
      2744 8124 2774 8140 2784 8124 2777 8118
      2775 8118 2774 8116 2773 8117 2771 8115
      2767 8115 2766 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 324DEG 18KT 2773 8128

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW