Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
243 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...
During the rest of the weekend a short wave trough ejects from the
northern plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley as it deepens into a
low...Mid level ridging in the Atlantic stretches across FL to the
Gulf of Mexico while an upper low tracks westward aloft the Bahamas.
At the surface high pressure from the Atlantic extends across the
state to most of the the Gulf with an axis that lifts north...from
central to north FL.

Ample moisture is in place for showers and storms through Sun...from
the afternoon into the early evening hours. Coverage starts off
isolated but becomes scattered to numerous during the afternoons.
Light and variable flow this afternoon will result in slow
moving showers/storms with rather uniform areal coverage. But as Sun
transitions into a southeasterly flow regime with a subtle increase
in speed showers/storms will congregate along the Gulf coast.

Mon through next Sat: The mid level ridging remains centered off
the Mid-Atlantic coast as it sprawls over FL to the Gulf. The Mid-
Mississippi Valley upper low scoots across the Great Lakes to
southeast Canada. The upper low over the Bahamas slides west over
Cuba to the Yucatan. Another upper low forms east of the Bahamas
by next weekend. The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis exits the
state early Mon then meanders between 30 and 35 North Latitude...
providing easterly and southeasterly flow across the area.

Moisture will be adequate for isolated to scattered but
occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening hours. With the high pressue ridge axis north of the
area the prevailing flow will be east or southeast but with sea
breezes along the coast most afternoons. As a result the greatest
coverage is expected along the Gulf coast mid to late afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
10/18Z TAF cycle. Prevailing VFR under increasing clouds. Have
started TSRA with SCT CB TIL 03Z. PSBL MVFR especially at
LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW. Mostly VRBL winds become W or NW AOB 08KT by 20Z at
coastal aerodromes. Light and VRBL winds overnight then E or SE 5 to
7KT AFT 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas 15 knots/3 feet or less...although higher in and near
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure lifts into north FL Sun
then exits the state Mon and resides along or north of Latitude
30 North. The gradient tightens slightly with a subtle increase in
east or southeast winds. However a sea breeze is expected most
days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A moist airmass with showers and storms will preclude any low RH
concerns. Increased wind speeds will create some high dispersions
Mon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  89  77  92 /  30  50  30  70
FMY  75  89  74  91 /  60  60  30  70
GIF  74  91  74  90 /  40  60  20  70
SRQ  76  89  74  92 /  50  50  30  70
BKV  72  90  72  92 /  20  60  30  70
SPG  79  88  77  90 /  30  50  30  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

RKR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
409 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021

FLZ165-265-102100-
Inland Lee FL-Coastal Lee FL-
409 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

At 409 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bonita Springs, moving north at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bonita Springs, Lehigh Acres, Lovers Key State Park, San Carlos Park,
Southwest Florida Airport, Harlem Heights, Three Oaks, Iona, Cypress
Lake, Villas, Estero and Gateway.

LAT...LON 2633 8182 2633 8184 2651 8198 2661 8162
      2642 8160 2642 8166 2632 8166 2632 8169
      2631 8169 2632 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 166DEG 11KT 2636 8172

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
521 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021

FLZ050-151-251-102200-
Coastal Hillsborough FL-Pinellas FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
521 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PINELLAS AND
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 520 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Citrus Park, or 8 miles northwest of Tampa, moving southwest at 5
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tampa, Clearwater, Citrus Park, Greater Carrollwood, Greater
Northdale, Tampa International Airport, Lake Magdalene, Egypt
Lake-Leto, Keystone, Safety Harbor, West Park, Oldsmar, Westchase and
Town N Country.

LAT...LON 2814 8256 2809 8248 2791 8256 2800 8271
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 024DEG 6KT 2805 8258

TBW