Alert archive / Florida / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

March 30, 2021Sumter County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this special weather statement at Mar 30, 2021, 6:43 PM EDT for Sumter County, Florida. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 30, 2021, 6:43 PM EDT (22:43 UTC)
Expired
Mar 30, 2021, 7:15 PM EDT
In force
32 min
Issued by
NWS Tampa Bay, FL

County Sumter County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-03-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 360 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-03-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -30 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
360 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-124 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
943 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Mar 30, 2:20 PM EDT, 4 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 30, 2:20 PM EDT, 4 hours 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
220 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridging continues to stretch across the Bahamas, through
the Florida Strait and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. On the
surface, strong high pressure sitting off the New England coast
ridges southwest over the mid-Atlantic states. A stalled frontal
boundary extends over northern Florida and along the northern gulf
coast of AL/MS/LA. Scattered showers will be possible today with the
highest coverage north of the I-4 corridor in the vicinity of the
front. An easterly component wind flow combined with an east coast
sea breeze will produce scattered showers over the interior counties
on Wednesday afternoon.

By late Wednesday into Thursday, deep troughing digs into the
central U.S. and moves eastward. This troughing will support a more
significant weather system that will push another cold front through
the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Current guidance has the highest
rain chances over the interior and east coast with frontal passage.
The trough axis and frontal boundary moves off the eastern seaboard
by early Friday morning. Strong upper ridging and surface high
pressure build in behind this front and will help usher in some much
cooler and drier air for the weekend. Rain-free conditions are
expected for Friday through the middle of next week. Temperatures
for today and tomorrow will run above average before the cool down
starts on Thursday. The coolest day expected will be on Friday with
daytime highs topping out only in the upper 60's to mid 70's. The
coolest night will be on Thursday and Friday night with temps
dropping into the low 40's to low 50's. Temperatures begin to
moderate closer to normal on Saturday and Sunday, then further
warming above average for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Some SHRA possible today,
but highest chances should stay north and east of the terminals, so
will hold off on any mention in current TAFs for now. SW to NW winds
around 8-12 knots and gusty at times expected through the afternoon,
then becoming light and variable after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal boundary currently extends across the northern gulf waters
and northern Florida, with a few showers possible along and just off
the coast. East-southeast winds south of the front will turn onshore
today and Wednesday with the afternoon sea breezes. A stronger cold
front will push southeast into the waters on Thursday, bringing in
breezy northerly winds by early Thursday with winds and seas
building to Small Craft Advisory level. Winds will turn to the
northeast and then easterly on Friday and Saturday and continue to
run at or near advisory levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
West central and southwest Florida remains in a warm and moist air
mass for the next couple of days keeping RH values above any
critical levels. A significant cold front is expected to move
through Florida on Thursday. Cooler and much drier air filters in
behind this front late Thursday through Saturday bringing RH values
below 35 percent. These low RH values and gusty northerly winds will
likely produce Red Flag conditions on Thursday and Friday. RH values
remain borderline for the weekend, but lower wind speeds should
preclude the need for a Red Flag Warning over the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  72  86  69  76 /  10  10  10  20
FMY  70  89  70  83 /  10  20  10  20
GIF  70  89  68  78 /  30  40  20  30
SRQ  70  85  68  77 /  10  10  10  20
BKV  65  89  61  75 /  20  10  10  10
SPG  72  84  70  75 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 30, 6:43 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
643 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

FLZ043-302315-
Sumter-
643 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTY...

At 642 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bushnell,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wildwood, Bushnell, Lake Panasoffkee, Coleman, Adamsville and
Sumterville.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 2874 8195 2871 8196 2865 8209 2876 8216
      2886 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 240DEG 12KT 2874 8205

TBW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 29, 10:04 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTBWHillsborough116 min
Mar 30, 6:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTBWSumter27 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Florida, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.