Special Marine Warning 89, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
235 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Deep layer ridging from the Atlantic stretching across the
northern half of the state pivots up into the south US Mon.
An upper low spinning across the Mid-Mississippi Valley lifts up
toward the Great Lakes while an upper low/trough south of the
Florida Keys moves west into the Gulf of Mexico. A east or
southeast flow spreads across the entire area tonight and
continues Mon with an increase in speeds. The Moisture rich air of
this afternoon will begin to dry slightly later tonight with a
large swath of PWAT values around 1.5 inches but increases up 1.8
inches for Mon afternoon.

Isolated showers/storms across the far interior are propagating toward
the Gulf coast. These will fill in as they approach the sea breeze
boundaries...close to the coast in the south but reaching a bit
more inland in the north. The showers and storms will wind down
and slide offshore around sunset...with the loss of daytime
heating. The pattern Mon will be similar although the drier air in
the morning and early afternoon may delay the convection some and
a more robust east or southeast flow will keep the sea breeze
closer to the entire coast.

From Tue through next Sun: The center of the deep layer ridging
remains anchored off the Mid-Atlantic coast with an axis initially
reaching across the southeastern states that rotates back over FL
and the Gulf around midweek. Another upper low/trough forms near the
Bahamas by the weekend. The atmosphere remains generally moist with
scattered to at times numerous showers/storms. A prevailing easterly
flow will result in convection favoring the Gulf coast in
the afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
11/18Z TAFs. Prevailing VFR but with SCT CB til 03Z providing
brief MVFR and PSBL LCL IFR. S winds take on an onshore component
during the afternoon AOB 08KT...except gusty near TSRA. Light and
VRBL winds overnight then SE AOB 09KT AFT 14-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure across the waters lifts into GA by Mon and resides
there at least through midweek with prevailing winds becoming
east or southeast...except for sea breezes along the coast in the
afternoons. Winds/seas 15 knots/3 feet or less although higher in
and near showers and thunderstorms...scattered to at times
numerous.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Adequate moisture prevails to preclude low RH concerns and to
support daily showers and storms Increased wind speeds will create
some high dispersions Mon and Tue.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  90  77  91 /  30  70  20  70
FMY  74  91  75  91 /  30  70  30  70
GIF  74  91  75  89 /  20  60  10  70
SRQ  73  92  75  92 /  20  60  30  70
BKV  72  92  72  91 /  30  60  20  70
SPG  78  91  77  90 /  30  70  30  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
411 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE SOLANA             26.92N 82.00W
07/11/2021  M47 MPH          CHARLOTTE          FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION PUNTA GORDA REPORTED 47 MPH
            WIND GUST.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
417 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

FLZ061-160-162-255-260-112100-
Coastal Charlotte FL-DeSoto FL-Inland Manatee FL-Inland Sarasota FL-
Coastal Sarasota FL-
417 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE...NORTH
CENTRAL CHARLOTTE...SOUTHWESTERN DESOTO AND EASTERN SARASOTA COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 417 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
North Port, moving northwest at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
North Port, Port Charlotte, Myakka River State Park, Murdock, Lake
Suzy, Hidden River, Venice Gardens, Fort Ogden, Warm Mineral Springs,
Harbour Heights and South Venice.

LAT...LON 2735 8226 2726 8211 2718 8195 2704 8193
      2703 8197 2700 8196 2699 8217 2706 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 113DEG 12KT 2711 8218

TBW

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