Special Marine Warning 77, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
237 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop over
the forecast area the remainder of the afternoon within a moist
(PW~2 inches) and unstable air mass with a southeast steering flow
pushing the convection west-northwest toward the Gulf coast into
the evening hours. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning
strikes, and gusty winds will accompany the storms. The showers
and storms will gradually wind down or shift west into the Gulf
waters after sunset tonight with leftover convective debris
cloudiness supporting partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight.

During Wednesday and Thursday deep layered ridging from the
Atlantic extending west across the eastern U.S. with the surface
ridge axis north of the area will begin to sink south as a
positively-tilted upper level trough takes shape over the eastern
U.S. with the flow becoming southerly over the forecast area.
Similar to today ample moisture combined with daytime heating and
the sea breezes will support numerous to widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms over the forecast area with locally heavy
downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds accompanying the
storms.

On Friday and into the upcoming Holiday weekend the subtropical
ridge will settle further to the southeast in response to the
aforementioned upper level trough expanding with a closed cutoff
low developing over the Ohio valley, with an attendant cold
front sinking south across the Deep South and eventually stalling
out near the FL/GA border. As the ridge sinks further to the south
the surface ridge axis will become aligned east to west across
the southern peninsula, with the low level flow veering to the
southwest and west. This change in the flow pattern will favor
showers and storms over the Gulf waters and along the coast during
the late night and early morning hours, with the convection then
shifting east to inland locations each afternoon where the highest
rain chances and best convective coverage should reside each day.
With ample moisture remaining in place locally heavy downpours
can be expected with the storms along with frequent lightning
strikes and gusty winds.

During early next week the upper level trough/closed low will lift
out to the northeast which will allow the subtropical ridge to
build back to the north over the area with a typical summertime
pattern expected featuring diurnal sea breeze driven showers and
storms daily. Temperatures will remain near seasonal levels
through the period with highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower
90s each day, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s inland
areas, and upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys from SHRA/TSRA will be possible at the
terminals the remainder of the afternoon and have handled with
TEMPO groups through 00Z. East to southeast winds around 10 knots
may briefly become onshore at KTPA, KPIE, KSRQ terminals between
18-21Z with the sea breeze with gusts up to 35 knots possible in
the vicinity of TSRA. East southeast winds will diminish to 5
knots or less after 02Z tonight, then increase to 6 to 8 knots
after 14Z on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Deep layered ridging from the Atlantic extending west across the
eastern U.S. with the surface ridge axis north of the area will
maintain a southeast wind flow and slight seas over the Gulf
waters tonight through Wednesday. During Thursday and Friday the
high will sink south with winds becoming southerly on Thursday,
then southwest on Friday and into the upcoming Holiday weekend.
Winds and seas will be higher near thunderstorms, otherwise no
headlines are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure north of the region will gradually sink south
through the end of the week and into the upcoming Holiday
weekend. A very moist southeast flow will gradually become south
by Thursday, then southwest on Friday and into the he weekend as
the high sinks south. Ample moisture will support numerous showers
and scattered storms each day which will keep humidity values
well above critical levels with no fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  89  74  88 /  50  80  40  60
FMY  74  87  74  88 /  50  80  40  70
GIF  73  88  73  89 /  30  80  20  80
SRQ  74  89  74  89 /  60  80  50  60
BKV  72  89  71  89 /  50  80  40  70
SPG  75  88  75  88 /  60  80  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle

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