Special Marine Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1004 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

.UPDATE...
Tornado Watch 5 has been cancelled for the counties of
Levy...Sumter...Citrus...and Hernando counties.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 719 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021/

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS expected to drop to MVFR to IFR from north to south
throughout the overnight hours. MVFR and brief IFR visibility will
also be possible overnight. Winds will be southerly but will
shift to the west then northwest through the period. SHRA and VCTS
will be possible mainly in the overnight and morning hours at all
terminals.

Prev Discussion... /issued 309 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021/

DISCUSSION...
A boundary is in place across the Nature Coast this afternoon.
Warm and moist air will continue to lift north across the area
as the boundary lifts through the afternoon, with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some becoming severe with
damaging winds and a tornado possible this afternoon. The chance
for severe weather will continue into the evening and overnight
hours, as the boundary then pushes back to the south and through
the area Sunday morning through the afternoon, with showers and
storms gradually ending across the area from north to south on
Sunday. Sea fog and land fog are also possible this
evening/overnight with sea fog already in place just offshore of
the Tampa Bay area. The fog will also clear out as the front
pushes south.

Once the front pushes south of the area, some drier and slightly
cooler air will move into the area behind it as high pressure
builds with the front stalling across south FL. The boundary lifts
back to the north mid-week allowing for a few showers in the
afternoons, with ridging then building in from the SE across the
area. The next stronger frontal system moves in Friday with a
secondary push Saturday, allowing for scattered showers and storms
across the area.

Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s through much of
the period, with lows generally in the 50s and 60s through the
period.

MARINE...
Sea fog is in place across at least the central near-shore waters
this afternoon and is expected to spread across the waters with
the warm and moist air lifting over the area through the evening.
It will then eventually clear from north to south as the front
moves through the area Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will also be in place across the area through
Sunday, also clearing from north to south with the front. Winds
and seas are expected to remain AOB 15 knots through the period
with no headlines. High pressure will briefly build in for Monday,
with the frontal boundary across south FL then lifting back to
the north Tuesday through the end of the period. A few mainly
afternoon showers will be possible each day from Tuesday on.

FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns as afternoon humidities are expected to remain above
critical levels through the period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  67  73  59 /  70  80  50   0
FMY  84  69  78  65 /  60  50  70  10
GIF  75  68  79  60 /  70  70  60   0
SRQ  81  68  75  59 /  70  80  60   0
BKV  75  62  74  52 /  70  80  40   0
SPG  75  66  71  60 /  70  80  50   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

UPDATE...09/Rude

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
643 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N CHIEFLAND           29.54N 82.86W
02/06/2021                   LEVY               FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO HOMES RECEIVED MINOR TO MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE.
            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN BETWEEN CHIEFLAND AND
            FANNING SPRINGS.

&&

OGLESBY