Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
254 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon. As the east coast
sea breeze moves west areal coverage of storms will again increase
along and to the west of the I-75 corridor during the late
afternoon as the east and west coast sea breeze boundaries
collide. Some locally heavy rain, frequent lightning strikes,
strong gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph, and small hail will be
possible with the storms.

Tonight the showers and storms wind down or shift west into the
Gulf during the evening with leftover convective debris
cloudiness again thinning out with skies becoming partly cloudy
overnight into early Thursday morning, with low temperatures in
lower to mid 70s inland areas, and upper 70s along the coast.

On Thursday high pressure near the FL/GA border will remain in
control with an east southeast wind flow continuing over the
forecast area, with an onshore sea breeze component developing
along the coast during the afternoon. Ample moisture combined
with daytime heating will again support scattered to numerous
diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms during the afternoon
with the easterly steering flow again favoring the best convective
coverage and highest pops along and to the west of the I-75
corridor during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some locally
heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will accompany
the storms.

Now during Friday and into the upcoming weekend additional
moisture will overspread the area with increasing wind and rain
chances as Tropical Storm Fred approaches from the southeast. At
the current time the latest NHC track takes Tropical Storm Fred
west-northwest into the eastern Gulf just offshore the southwest
Florida coast early on Saturday, then moves it west-northwest
along and offshore the Florida west coast through Sunday night.

At the present time there is still some uncertainty in the exact
track of Fred and how it will eventually impact the area, so all
residents and visitors to west central and southwest Florida
should continue to monitor the progress of Fred during the next
few days. For additional information on Tropical Storm Fred, see
the latest advisories being issued by the National Hurricane
Center in Miami.

During Monday through Wednesday a lingering trough axis in the
wake of Fred combined with abundant moisture within a deep
layered southwest wind flow will support scattered to numerous
showers and storms over the forecast area each day through the
period. Temperatures will run near seasonal levels with overnight
lows in the mid to upper 70s, with daytime highs climbing into the
upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at the terminals
between 18-24Z as SHRA/TSRA develop over the region and have
depicted VCTS after 18Z with short Tempo groups between 20-24Z to
cover this. Outside of the convection VFR is expected. East to
southeast winds in the 5 to 7 knot range will prevail except
becoming onshore from KSRQ north to KTPA and KPIE terminals after
18Z with the sea breeze with higher gusts in the vicinity of TSRA.
Light and variable winds will return to the terminals after 02Z
tonight through early Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the northern peninsula will maintain tranquil
boating conditions on the Gulf waters tonight through early Friday
with east southeast winds around 10 knots with slight seas with
an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each
afternoon. Wind and seas will be higher in the vicinity of
scattered to numerous showers and storms each day mainly during
the late afternoon and evening hours.

During late Friday and into the upcoming weekend deteriorating
marine conditions are expected with increasing winds and seas as
Tropical Cyclone Fred moves west northwest into and through the
eastern Gulf. For additional information on this system see the
latest advisories being issued by the National Hurricane Center in
Miami. All mariners should continue to monitor the progress of
Fred in the coming days. Improving marine conditions are expected
over the Gulf waters early next week in the wake of the Fred as
high pressure rebuilds in over the region with diminishing winds
and subsiding seas expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Frequent lightning strikes from daily diurnal storms will pose a
risk for fire development, otherwise no other fire weather hazards
are expected through Friday. During the upcoming weekend rain
chances will be on the increase area-wide along with increasing
winds (especially along coastal areas) as Tropical Storm Fred
moves west-northwest into and through the eastern Gulf waters. For
additional information on Tropical Storm Fred, see the latest
advisories being issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  94  78  93 /  20  50  20  60
FMY  75  93  76  93 /  20  50  20  90
GIF  74  92  76  91 /  10  30  10  70
SRQ  75  92  76  92 /  20  50  20  70
BKV  72  92  72  93 /  20  50  20  50
SPG  77  92  79  91 /  30  50  20  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 3

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to the link below
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
DECISION SUPPORT...Jillson