River Flood Advisory 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
855 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

.UPDATE...
It has been a much quieter and drier day across west central and
southwest Florida today. A majority of the showers and storms were
limited to the Nature Coast and northern Florida in the vicinity of
a frontal boundary that has lingered there over the weekend. Some
showers and storm continue to fire over the inland areas and will
continue pushing eastward through the evening hours. This should
make for pleasant weather across western Florida for any July 4th
activities outside this evening.

Farther to the south, Tropical Storm Elsa remains very disorganized
this evening near the southeast coast of Cuba. The latest advisory
has the storm moving northwestward across Cuba later tonight through
Monday morning and tracking toward the west coast of Florida on
Monday and Tuesday. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the
exact track, but heavy rain, storm surge and tropical storm force
winds will be possible starting late Monday and continuing through
Wednesday. You can monitor the latest on Tropical Storm Elsa from
our office and the National Hurricane Center.

No significant changes made to the current forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys may impact the terminals after 20Z on
Monday as SHRA/TSRA develop over the area, and have handled with
VCTS for now, otherwise VFR will prevail. West to northwest winds in
the 7 to 10 knot range early this evening will become light and
variable after 02Z. East to southeast winds will increase to 7 to 9
knots after 15Z except becoming onshore between 18-20Z from KSRQ
north to KTPA and KPIE with the sea breeze with higher gusts in the
vicinity of TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will produce a
light wind flow across the Gulf waters through tonight and early
Monday. Marine conditions start to deteriorate across the coastal
waters beginning Monday night and lasting through mid week as
Tropical Storm Elsa approaches from the south. Tropical Storm force
winds, very rough seas, heavy downpours and thunderstorms expected
with the passage of Tropical Storm Elsa. Winds and seas begin to
subside late in the week as a more typical summertime pattern
returns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  93  77  90 /   0  60  60  70
FMY  76  92  77  89 /  20  70  60  70
GIF  75  92  75  89 /  10  70  60  80
SRQ  76  92  76  89 /   0  60  60  70
BKV  72  92  73  90 /  10  60  60  80
SPG  79  91  78  89 /   0  60  60  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Inland
     Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-
     Inland Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Watch for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood
     FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs
     FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/MARINE/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn
UPPER AIR...09/Rude
AVIATION...57/McMichael