Heat Advisory 5, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
817 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Made a few tweaks to Nature Coast PoPs overnight into Monday
morning in accordance with latest guidance where current
convection is expected to wane through evening before re-firing
overnight. Deeper W/SW flow evident in evening U/A sounding along
with gradually increasing PWATs over peninsula will lead to
increased rain chances Monday afternoon which will also moderate
afternoon highs as well...generally around 90 for coastal/northern
locations to the lower 90s for southern/interior locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR expected thru period with brief restrictions possible with
passing morning/afternoon SHRA/TSRA, otherwise light/variable to
SW winds overnight increase to W/SW around 10 knots or less
during morning before gradually diminishing during evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 303 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue to ridge across south FL into Tuesday
as a boundary settles into northern FL and an upper trough settles
over the eastern US. This will increase the moisture and
instability over the area and increase rain chances over the next
few days as SW flow continues. The boundary then washes out with
weak E/SE flow establishing for the second half of the week and
next weekend as higher rain chances continue across the area with
timing shifting to more in the later afternoon and evening. Hot
temperatures this afternoon will cool a degree or two as we get
more cloud cover and convection, lowering afternoon highs from the
lower to mid 90s this afternoon to the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the area through the rest of the period. Lows will remain
in the mid 70s to lower 80s through the period.

MARINE...
High pressure across south FL will continue SW winds across the
waters into Tuesday as a boundary settles into northern FL and
stalls. This boundary will wash out with winds shifting back to
the E/SE for the second half of the week. Rain chances will also
increase through the week as deep moisture and upper energy
enhance convection. No headlines are expected through the period,
but winds and seas will be locally higher in storms.

FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  81  90  79  90 /  30  50  30  70
FMY  77  92  77  91 /  10  50  20  60
GIF  77  92  76  91 /  20  60  20  80
SRQ  79  91  78  91 /  10  40  20  60
BKV  75  89  74  89 /  40  50  40  80
SPG  81  89  80  89 /  20  40  30  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow:
For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to the link below
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...Mroczka