Heat Advisory 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
335 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge axis continues to
extend from the Atlantic across southern Florida. This pattern will
hold through early next week, with generally southwesterly flow
persisting across the forecast area. Relatively dry air will keep
rain chances limited today with isolated showers and storms
developing near the coast in the morning, then scattered showers and
storms over the interior in the afternoon, with the highest rain
chances expected over the Nature Coast where moisture is more
favorable. A similar pattern will setup on Monday, although
moisture will be a bit more abundant and numerous storm coverage
is expected inland and across the Nature Coast.

A shortwave trough will dig into southeastern US during the first
half of the week, with a weak front stalling out just north of
Florida Tuesday and Wednesday. Although the southwesterly flow
pattern is expected to hold through the week, this stalled front
will allow moisture to build up on the southern side of the
boundary, with a bit higher rain chances expected. This will be most
noticeable over the Nature Coast, with numerous to widespread showers
and storms expected each day, and 7-day QPF totals of 4-7 inches
are forecast across the northern counties, possibly resulting in
some localized flooding.

Friday and Saturday, the ridge will retreat east into the Atlantic,
resulting in a more southerly flow regime. This pattern will favor
numerous storm coverage across the entire forecast area both
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours. The
possible exception will be with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms shifting onshore during the morning, then building
into the interior during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge  across southern
Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the first half of
next week, with southwest winds continuing across the coastal
waters. Wind speeds will generally hold less than 15 knots, although
daily thunderstorms will produce locally higher winds and hazardous
boating conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  94  82  93  82 /  20  10  50  30
FMY  94  79  93  79 /  20  10  40  20
GIF  95  77  93  76 /  30  10  60  20
SRQ  91  79  91  79 /  10  10  40  20
BKV  91  75  91  74 /  30  20  60  30
SPG  91  82  90  81 /  10  10  40  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 5

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to the link below
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

Fleming