Heat Advisory 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
930 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.UPDATE...
A weak area of low pressure just offshore the northeast Florida
coast this morning will continue to move west-northwest inland
over northeast Florida and into southeast GA through the remainder
of the day with no impacts expected across west central and
southwest Florida. Across the remainder of the region high
pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the south
central peninsula and into the eastern Gulf will remain in control
with a light south to southwest wind flow expected over the
region. Morning Raob data shows a significant increase in moisture
over the region with a PW of 2.08 inches noted which is up 0.60
inches from yesterday at this time.

This increase in moisture combined with daytime heating and
instability will support and increase in shower and storm
coverage along the inland moving sea breeze boundaries during the
afternoon and evening hours with the highest rain chances and best
storm coverage expected down the spine of the peninsula (where
the east/west coast sea breeze collision should take place) during
the late afternoon and evening hours.

With a very weak steering flow noted on the morning sounding very
slow and erratic moving storms can be expected which will support
locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding of low lying and
poor drainage areas. In addition, frequent lightning strikes and
gusty winds will accompany the storms. The light winds and good
instability will also increase the risk for waterspouts over the
adjacent Gulf waters, so mariners should be alert for rapidly
changing weather conditions through the day. It will be another
hot and very muggy day with afternoon temperatures climbing into
the lower to mid 90s prior to the onset of the storms, with heat
indices in the 100 to 105 degree range expected. Remember if you
plan to be outdoors, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated.
Current forecast is on track with no changes or updates required
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief MVFR Cigs may impact the terminals between 15-17Z as ample
moisture and daytime heating promotes Cu development over the
area. Additional brief MVFR/IFR Cigs/Vsbys may impact the
terminals after 17Z as SHRA/TSRA develop over the region. Have
handled with VCTS for now, but brief Tempo groups may become
necessary in later forecasts or amendments. Outside of the
convection VFR is expected. Light and variable winds will become
south to southwest at 6 to 8 knots after 15Z except becoming
northeast (Bay breeze) at KPIE. Winds will then become west to
northwest at the coastal terminals between 18-20Z with the sea
breeze with higher gusts in the vicinity of TSRA. Light and
variable winds return after 02Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the south
central peninsula and into the eastern Gulf will maintain a light
south to southwest wind flow and slight seas over the Gulf waters
the remainder of today, with an onshore sea breeze component
developing along the coast during the afternoon. Wind and seas
will be higher in the vicinity of thunderstorms, otherwise no
headlines are expected. In addition to the higher winds and seas
near the storms sufficient instability combined with light winds
will increase the risk of waterspouts over the waters today, so
mariners should be alert to rapidly changing weather conditions.
Ongoing forecast in in good shape with no changes expected in the
next update around 10 AM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/McMichael
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...97/Flannery