Heat Advisory 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
731 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

.AVIATION...
A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may affect TPA
and PIE through the morning hours. Convective activity will shift
eastward towards LAL with VCTS remaining in the TAFs for now.
Temporary restrictions are possible in any SH/TS but otherwise,
prevailing VFR conditions will persist through the period. Winds
will primarily be out of the west to northwest, becoming light
and variable after sunset.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021/

DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels high pressure will remain over the Gulf of
Mexico and Florida through Friday then shifts west as troughing
deepens off the eastern U.S. seaboard. Meanwhile at the surface,
the ridge axis across the region will begin to drift south Friday
reaching the Florida Straits this weekend as a weakening frontal
boundary sags into north Florida. Early next week the upper level
high tries to build back in, but overall weak troughing lingers
over the area as the surface ridge drifts back north into the
region.

For today west to northwest flow will become established with some
deeper moisture moving into the Nature Coast leading to some
scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning then the majority
of convective activity will shift to the eastern half of the
Florida peninsula by late afternoon. A few showers and storms will
be possible from Tampa Bay south, but mainly east of the
Interstate 75 corridor. With the lower convective chances today
we'll see rather hot temperatures with highs in the lower to
middle 90s away from the coast, with feels like temperatures
reaching 102 to 107 degrees.

Early tonight the convection will wind down, but toward morning
we'll begin to see more scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
develop over the Florida Big Bend and northeast gulf drifting east
and southeast into the Nature Coast. Friday will have a similar
pattern to today, but with some deeper moisture spreading back
into the area we'll see isolated to scattered convection develop
near the coast in the morning and then move east and become
scattered to numerous over the eastern half of the Florida
peninsula late in the day into the evening.

Late Friday night into Saturday is beginning to look rather wet,
but not a total wash out. Deep moisture will settle across the
area and with the low level west to northwest flow in place and
upper level troughing we'll see scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms develop and move across the entire region. Highest
chances will be near the coast during the late night and morning
hours from around Tampa Bay northward then shifting inland and
south from around the Interstate 4 corridor southward during the
afternoon. However, a shower or thunderstorm is not out of the
question at almost anytime in this pattern.

Saturday night the deepest moisture shifts to across south Florida
as the frontal trough settles into the area shifting low level
winds to east to northeast which brings some drier air into the
Nature Coast south to around Interstate 4 corridor. On Sunday the
easterly low level flow will continue with deepest moisture and
highest rain chances from around the Interstate 4 corridor
southward.

Early next week a low level southeast to south flow will return as
the ridge axis shifts back into the region with deep moisture
across the entire area. This will lead to scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours. However, the exception may be from
around Tampa Bay north near the coast as the southerly flow could
bring some convection in from the gulf waters during the late
night and morning hours.

MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure with a relaxed gradient dominates will
remain across the waters today then this axis shifts south of the
area by this weekend as a weakening frontal boundary settles into
north Florida. These features lift back north early next week.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below headline criteria, but
locally winds and seas will be possible near showers and
thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  94  82  93  80 /  20  10  40  50
FMY  95  78  93  77 /  10  10  30  40
GIF  95  78  93  76 /  40  20  60  40
SRQ  92  80  92  78 /  10  10  30  50
BKV  92  76  92  74 /  40  20  40  50
SPG  92  82  90  80 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

AVIATION...Norman
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Close