Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
733 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.DISCUSSION...
During the next 24 hours an upper low meanders aloft the lower
Mississippi Valley...while sprawling down over the northern Gulf
of Mexico...and upper level riding over Cuba and the Bahamas
stretches northeast across the Atlantic. At the surface...high
pressure in New England reaches down the eastern seaboard to
FL...a stalled front in the central Gulf coastal states extends
south...and a weak trough was over and just north of the Bahamas.

The features noted above will keep abundant moisture in place
with model PWAT values running from around 2 inches in the north
to 1.6 to 1.8 inches in the south. This is more than adequate to
support a chance of showers and a slight chance of storms.
Steering flow will be southerly to southwesterly with an easterly
surface flow...but shifting to westerly in the afternoon. The
greatest shower/storm coverage will be in the afternoon...with
the maximum heating of the day and some lift from the sea breeze.
Both the surface/sea breeze flow and steering flow stay light
with overall movement a slow drift to the east or northeast.

We still have some afternoon showers and a few storms strung out
along the coast but these will be winding down during the next
hour or 2...will then clean-up the near term weather and POPs.
Dry conditions over night then convection begins again later Wed
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
06/00Z-06/24Z. SCT CU/SC under SCT-BKN mid and high clouds as winds
diminish and veer to easterly over night. Winds become SE and
increase some in the morning then go to SW in the afternoon...AOB
07KT. Have held TAFs at VFR with just VCSH AFT 19Z. But can not
rule out an ISOLD SHRA/TSRA with brief MVFR/LCL IFR toward the end
of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas no more than 10 knots/2 feet for the next few
day...mainly east or southeast but shifting to onshore near the
coast in the afternoons. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will produce locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  91  77  92 /  10  30  20  40
FMY  74  92  76  92 /  40  40  20  60
GIF  73  91  75  92 /  30  40  10  60
SRQ  73  90  76  90 /   0  30  20  40
BKV  72  90  71  91 /  20  40  10  40
SPG  77  89  78  89 /   0  30  20  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 6

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to the link below
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...97/Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...97/Flannery