Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1258 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Current conds mainly range from IFR to MVFR outside of DHN.
Streams of Cu are flourishing across the area this afternoon,
with a line of SHRA and embedded thunder extending from near ECP
to ABY. The convection is also accompanied by gusty south winds.
Activity should persist over the next several hrs. A second line
of showers/storms looks to encroach on DHN/ABY around 0Z, but
appear to be on a weakening trend. Overnight, CIGS drop to IFR-
LIFR levels, while TLH/VLD likely sees fog early tmrw morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1011 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A warm and humid airmass will continue to remain in place across the
forecast area this afternoon. This airmass will lead to the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day
with the greatest coverage expected to be in the early afternoon
hours as instability maximizes across the region. Similar to
Wednesday, we'll likely see the initial development of storms west
of the Apalachicola/Flint river basin in the morning and
afternoon hours with gradually increasing chances for rain east of
these areas for the remainder of the afternoon. The only
difference with today's setup is slightly greater instability
across southern Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend. This means that
storm development and coverage will be greater across these areas
this afternoon compared to what was observed Wednesday.

With elevated southwesterly flow in mid-levels around 40
to 50 knots, deep-layer shear will be sufficient to provide the
potential for isolated severe storms across the forecast area. Also
in similarity to yesterday, a brief tornado can't be ruled out in
any discrete storms the form. As the upper level ridge begins to
rebuild, deep-layer shear will begin to decrease, along with
decreasing instability, so we'll likely see convection begin to
lessen in coverage by the time Thursday evening approaches.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...

Upper ridge will continue to be located in the southern Gulf while
a closed low rounds over Baja California then ejects out into the
four corners. In response, lee cyclogenesis increases with a
surface low edging out into north Texas then merges with the
frontal zone in the southern Plains. Warm and moist airmass will
remain in place with highs reaching around 80 degrees and lows in
the mid 60s. As the gradient tightens up as the lee side low
ejects eastward, breezy south- southwest winds with gusts to 20
mph is expected. Early morning fog will occur Friday morning but
may be more of a low cloud episode Saturday morning with the
increase in low level flow.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The anticipated main event with the frontal passage and attendant
severe weather risk will occur Sunday. In addition, coastal
flooding, high surf, and gale force gusts will accompany the
front. Much colder temperatures will occur behind the front with
some chance of a light freeze both Monday and Tuesday morning over
portions of the area.

Surface low deepens over the Mid South racing northeastward,
sharpening the cold front as it heads into the southeast US. A
large deformation zone will stretch back into the northern Plains
on the heels of the deepening longwave trough and cold Canadian
high pressure. Models have trended slower this forecast package
with more of a daytime passage as opposed to a nighttime or
morning passage. Some uncertainty still remains until the models
become more consistent. Expect some tweaks to continue over the
next few days.

The wind field is more than adequate for severe thunderstorms; 50
knot 850mb jet underneath unidirectional 70 knot 500mb flow. Bulk
shears are on the order of 50-60 knots. A later arrival will place
SBCAPE on the order of 900-1400 J/kg. The sharp front will be the
lifting mechanism as well as help from the upper dynamics as the
upper low moves into the Tennessee Valley. Putting all that
together points to a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to
move through the Tri-State region during the day Sunday with the
potential for damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two.

Behind the front, the high treks from north Texas through the Mid
South and into the southern Appalachians; this isn't the best
track for the coldest temperatures. Our northern counties have the
best chance for a light freeze Monday and Tuesday morning before
the slow warmup begins Wednesday.

.MARINE...

The main update to the marine forecast was the issuance of a Dense
Fog Advisory for nearshore Apalachee Bay waters that is due to
expire at 2pm ET. See previous synopsis below:

High pressure ridging will continue through the Gulf
of Mexico while a frontal system will remain to the north. This
will keep moderate southerly winds ongoing through Friday night. A
much stronger cold front will approach Saturday with wind speeds
and wave heights increasing. The chance for gale force gusts are
increasing for both Sunday and Sunday night as the front moves
through. Winds behind the front will turn northerly with a blast
of colder air.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the next few days
with moist conditions in place.

.HYDROLOGY...

Freshwater flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.
Thunderstorms will contain intense rainfall rates, but dry weather
since early November means flash flood guidance values are high.
No river flooding is forecast.

Coastal flooding will be possible around Apalachee Bay, as south
and southwest winds increase. Tide observations from Apalachicola
and Cedar Key are running 1 to 1.5 feet above tide table
predictions, likely due to the days long duration and fetch of
southerly breezes across the Gulf. ESTOFS guidance shows tides
peaking around 2 feet MHHW, while probability- based PETSS
guidance shows a reasonable worst case scenario (10 percent chance
of exceedance) of 2 to 3 feet of inundation along the
Dixie/Taylor shoreline. Of course, timing of peak surge values in
relation to the normal cycle of high/low tides will matter. Bottom
line is that a period of minor to moderate coastal flooding is
shaping up. The period of greatest coastal flood concern will be
Saturday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  79  65  79  64 /  40  30  10  10  60
Panama City   67  77  66  77  63 /  40  30  20  20  70
Dothan        67  79  67  79  60 /  40  30  20  30  80
Albany        68  80  67  80  63 /  40  30  10  20  70
Valdosta      67  81  65  80  66 /  30  20  10  10  50
Cross City    66  78  63  78  66 /  10  10   0   0  30
Apalachicola  66  76  65  75  63 /  40  30  10  10  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Haner/Scholl

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1016 AM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

FLZ010-011-301645-
Jackson FL-Washington FL-
1016 AM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

...A shower with gusty winds will impact portions of central Jackson and
northeastern Washington Counties through 1045 AM CST...

At 1009 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chipley, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marianna, Chipley, Cottondale, Greenwood, Alford, Chipley Municipal
Airport, Kynesville, Blue Spring, Steele City, Cottondale Airport,
Chipola Terrace, Marianna Municipal A/P and Sills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8546 3076 8553 3100 8524 3077 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 238DEG 25KT 3073 8546

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1041 AM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

FLZ011-301715-
Jackson FL-
1041 AM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Jackson
County through 1115 AM CST...

At 1040 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong shower near
Marianna, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marianna, Malone, Greenwood, Bascom, Haynes, Two Egg, Hornsville,
Chipola Terrace, Buena Vista, Marianna Municipal A/P and Lovedale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. These types of funnel clouds on rare occasions
can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8518 3100 8502 3097 8500 3095 8498
      3093 8498 3093 8497 3092 8497 3089 8494
      3087 8494 3086 8493 3079 8526 3087 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 237DEG 23KT 3083 8528

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
130 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

GAZ127-128-301915-
Worth GA-Turner GA-
130 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Turner
and central Worth Counties through 215 PM EST...

At 130 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sylvester, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sylvester, Ashburn, Poulan, Terrell, Sumner, Gordy, Sylvester
Airport, Red Rock, Coverdale, Gammage, Hobby, Shingler and Isabella.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8363 3159 8365 3155 8365 3146 8391
      3159 8399 3173 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 243DEG 22KT 3154 8390

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD