Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1033 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES TODAY...

.UPDATE...
The main concerns today continue to be severe weather and flash
flooding. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
across portions of the area, where a favorable intersection of
parameters will be conducive for potentially a couple tornadoes.
A tornado watch may be needed later this morning or early this
afternoon. The flash flood threat continues, especially in the
Western FL Panhandle and portions of SE AL, where there WPC has a
slight risk of excessive rainfall. Some of these areas have
already received 2-4 inches of rainfall this morning; additional
rainfall is likely into the afternoon which could lead to flash
flooding. It will also be breezy today, with southwest winds
gusting 30 to 40 mph in heavier showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [645 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

As the remnants of Ida continue to propagate to the north and east,
the area is expected to be affected by a line of trailing showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day today.  A line currently
forming across south central Alabama is expected to move into SE
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by the early morning hours today.
This line is expected to propagate and intensify slightly throughout
the morning and into the afternoon and evening as it pushes
eastward. A second line may start to develop across SE Alabama later
in the evening; however, this is slightly less certain at this time
as some CAM guidance suggests that this may occur. Otherwise, The
line earlier in the day will have the chance for producing severe
weather along it as the environment destabilizes ahead of and
along the boundary throughout the morning and afternoon hours.
Current HRRR runs are suggesting that low level shear values will
be much higher today across the region compared to the previous
couple days as a low level jet associated with Ida pushes east
into our region. This will create a slightly higher threat for
strong winds and a tornado or two across much of the region today.
Given the favorable environment for severe weather today, the
Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
across much of the western portion of the region in a line from
the Flint river in Albany south to the Gulf.

Along with the threat for severe weather today, there will also be a
flash flood threat across SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle west
of the Apalachicola river. These areas are much more sensitive to
flash flooding as recent rains over the last month have been heavy.
Therefore, it will not take as much rainfall to cause flash flooding
across these regions.  Overall, given that PW values will be
approaching 2.5 inches today, rainfall rates will be especially
efficient. Given this threat of flash flooding and heavy rainfall,
these regions are still currently under a flash flood watch.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

Ida will move across the Appalachians tomorrow and the east coast of
the CONUS Thursday. As that occurs, the focus for the better rain
chances will shift across the southern half of the CWA tomorrow
with the focus for heavier rainfall across the southeast Big Bend
region. By Thursday, the boundary across the region shifts a
little further south and drier air (PW values of 1 inch) will move
into the northern portion of the CWA. This will limit PoPs to
around 10 percent across portions of southwest Georgia and
southeast Alabama...not typical for summertime. The better precip
chances will be confined to the southeast Big Bend.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 80s to around 90 and
increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Thursday.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

An upper level trough axis will sink south of the region on Friday
as ridging builds in from the west. This will keep a drier pattern,
particularly for the northern portion of the CWA into Saturday. PoPs
will begin to trend towards more normal summertime PoPs next week.
Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will dip down into
the mid 60s Friday morning across southeast Alabama with the drier
air in place, but range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the
remainder of the region. Lows will trend more towards 70 and the
lower 70s by early next week across the entire region.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]

Showers and thunderstorms are moving across the TAF sites from
west to east this morning and will continue and on and off
throughout the day. Timing is a bit difficult to pin down in the
TAFs given the longer duration, but the TSRA in the TAFs mainly
highlights the most likely timing. After this initial round of
storms moves through, another line is possible tonight.

.MARINE...

As Tropical Depression Ida continues northeast into the Tennessee
Valley today, a few rainbands will move across the region today.
This will keep winds and seas elevated through tomorrow. The Small
Craft Advisory across the western waters, west of Apalachicola
was extended into Wednesday morning. In addition, stronger winds
are expected to build develop across the eastern waters, east of
Apalachicola this afternoon and a Small Craft Advisory was also
issued for that area. Winds and seas will decrease late in the
week with generally 1-2 foot seas for the weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

With the wet pattern continuing today with widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected across the area, there are no fire weather
concerns. A drier period looks to start on Thursday for the
region.

.HYDROLOGY...

Tropical Depression Ida will continue to move northeast into the
Tennessee Valley today and as it does so, plenty of moisture will
continue to move across our region. Around 1-3 inches of rain has
already fallen across portions of the Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama. An additional two to five inches are possible
through Wednesday night, however the bulk of this would be today
into tonight. With the recent wet grounds, combined with the
additional rainfall, flash flooding will be possible across the
Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama and a flash flood watch
remains in effect through today. These rainfall amounts will cause
some rises on area river but it would take isolated higher
amounts to reach minor flood.

Tonight into Wednesday, the focus of the heavier rain will shift to
the Bend Bend. WPC has highlighted that area in a slight risk for
flash flooding. Given previous issues with standing water across the
region, the rainfall totals will need to be watched closely in that
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   85  74  90  72  92 /  90  60  60  30  20
Panama City   85  76  88  74  89 /  90  80  60  40  30
Dothan        83  72  88  69  88 /  90  70  40  10  10
Albany        84  74  88  71  90 /  90  40  40  10  10
Valdosta      86  74  88  71  90 /  60  40  60  20  20
Cross City    89  77  85  75  89 /  40  80  90  60  50
Apalachicola  84  77  86  74  87 /  80  90  80  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton
     Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE...LF
NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

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