Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
643 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Monday]

MVFR to IFR CIGs are still in place across the region, which are
affecting all terminals except ECP currently. These conditions are
expected to remain through the mid morning hours at all
terminals. VFR conditions are expected to return to all terminals
by mid morning; however, showers and thunderstorms from far outer
bands of Ida will likely impact ECP, DHN, and possibly TLH
throughout the day today. These bands at times will be capable of
producing gusty winds and reduced visibilities and CIGs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [440 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

As Ida makes it's approach to the Louisiana coastline today, extreme
outer bands are expected to move across the region.  These bands
will likely set up in a southeast to northwest orientation across
the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama through much of the day.  A few
bands may also develop across the Florida Big Bend in the same
orientation; however, these will likely remain along the coastline.
As the afternoon wears on; however, destabilization will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to develop across interior portions of the
the Florida Big Bend and into SW Georgia in the same southeast to
northwest orientation. Currently, portions of the Florida Panhandle
are in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as these bands may
have the potential for train over the same areas in the Panhandle
outlined in the risk throughout the day. Along with heavy rainfall,
there will also be the potential for a tornado or two throughout the
day in the bands that do develop across the area.  This will be
especially true during the afternoon hours as destabilization across
the region will allow thunderstorms the ability to take more
advantage of the increased low level shear in the 0-3 km levels.

Along with rain, wind, and the chance for a tornado or two, there
will also be beach hazards across all area beaches today.  High surf
is expected with 6-8 feet waves expected across the Florida
Panhandle beaches, and 3-5 expected across Gulf and Franklin county
beaches. along with the high surf, there will also be a high risk
for rip currents across all area beaches mainly because of the high
surf and dangerous swells produced from Ida. Both high surf and rip
currents will combine to make for life threatening conditions for
even the most experienced swimmers. Please heed the beach flags.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

Hurricane Ida will remain to our west as the storm moves across
Mississippi and Tennessee on Monday and Tuesday. To our east high
pressure along the Georgia coast will be in place Monday but breaks
down on Tuesday as Ida shifts to the northeast. This pattern with
the area sandwiched between the high to the east and Ida to the west
will put the region under southerly flow bringing copious amounts of
Gulf moisture to the tri-state region. This will result in high rain
chances, particularly across the Florida Panhandle and southeast
Alabama, through the short term. This set up may allow for our
heavier rain early this week and thus the flash flood potential is
being monitored closely. In addition, with rainbands from Ida still
traversing the region, the tornado threat will continue through the
short term and SPC has highlighted a portion of the region in a
marginal risk.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Ida will continue its journey and move into the northeast U.S. on
Thursday. This will allow the higher rain chances to continue into
Wednesday and expand across the entire CWA. Heavy rain will be
possible. Eventually an upper level through will swing through
with more normal rain chances Friday into Saturday.

.MARINE...

Hurricane Ida will continue to track northwest and make landfall
along the Louisiana coast today. While the region is well removed
from the center of the storm, impacts will be felt across the area
as rainbands rotate across the marine area. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect for the western offshore marine area
from Apalachicola westward with a Small Craft Advisory elsewhere.
Even in the Small Craft Advisory area, gusts of 34kts or more will
be possible in the rainbands. Elevated winds and seas will
decrease through the day on Monday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hurricane Ida will continue to track northwest and make landfall
today in Louisiana. While our area is well removed from the center,
rainbands from Ida will rotate across the region today. Gusty winds
will be possible with these rainbands. RH values will generally be
in the 60 to 70 percent range.

.HYDROLOGY...

Hurricane Ida located near the central Gulf coast will make
landfall in Louisiana today as a major hurricane and eventually
turn to the north and northeast on Monday. Rainbands from the
storm will move across the region today but as it moves off to the
northeast, we'll continue to see rainfall from Hurricane Ida
through the early week. Two to five inches of rain with isolated higher
amounts will be possible across the Florida Panhandle through
Wednesday. While isolated flooding is possible today with the
rainbands from Ida, the focus appears to be more in the Monday
through Wednesday time period for the heavy rain. Based on how the
rainbands set up today, a flash flood watch may be needed for
early in the week given the additional rainfall expected and
recent flooding issues across the Florida Panhandle.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  74  91  75  89 /  60  20  50  20  60
Panama City   88  76  88  76  86 /  90  40  70  50  80
Dothan        88  72  87  73  85 /  80  20  60  40  80
Albany        93  74  93  74  89 /  30  20  40  20  60
Valdosta      91  73  93  73  91 /  40  30  20  10  40
Cross City    92  74  91  75  91 /  40  60  20  10  40
Apalachicola  86  77  86  77  85 /  70  40  60  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for Coastal Bay-South
     Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Monday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Wakulla-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday
     for Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to
     Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     out 20 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

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